10/20: What can he have? What can I beat?

[ssmallz]

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If you are assuming this guy is solid then I think your logic is reasonable in the way you played the turn and the river.

But I think you may be making a bigger mistake by giving capper to much credit to start. Isn't it at least enough likely that this guy is a spazz that you have to bet your TPTK with a nut-flush draw on the turn. Sure vs. a range of TT+, AK then you are behind. But this is an unknown. Maybe he capped with T9s or KTs, or 55-99.

Once he checks the turn its obviously much less likely that he has TT+ or AK. So it seems likely that he spazzed preflop. If he spazzed preflop maybe he'll spazz with a bluff on the river.

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Not necessarily. Put yourself in villains shoes. This is exactly how I'd play KK. I cap pf which is standard and some tag bets into me on a QJx flop. His range has to be AA, KK, QQ, JJ or AQ. I don't really want to get into a raising war here so I call. On the turn, his check looks defensive AA, KK, or AQ, and his range still has me crushed so I check. On the river, its pretty clear he doesn't have AA or a set so I can bet hoping he'll pay off w/AQ.