#11
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Re: 50NL fold Aces here? (ugh I hate saying that!!)
Here's the absolute worst scenario imo:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt Board: 8c 4d 6s Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 32.578% 31.84% 00.74% 7249 169.00 { AcAs } Hand 1: 67.422% 66.68% 00.74% 15183 169.00 { QQ, 88, 66, 44, 86s, 75s, 64s } (I've only chose this range to demonstrate the breakeven point. Imo villain's range has much more overcard combos in it.) I should add that I don't see such a tight villain call with suited one gappers. He might have position on you but there are still people left to act behind him preflop. Maybe a suited connector but no way a suited one gapper or trash like 84o, 64o, 57o. Also there are 6 overpair possibilities on this board and if I only count 1 of them you have the odds. There are 9 combos for the set as always which are totally possible. You need 33% so you need like 5 combos of overcards. 5 combos of the possible 36 overpair combos. As I said you only need less than one overpair and you're good to go. On a sidenote: If you think that he only calls with hands that beat you why would you reraise here? More importantly: why whould you reraise and put more than 30% of your stack in the pot then fold? |
#12
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Re: 50NL fold Aces here? (ugh I hate saying that!!)
customer, can you please confirm that your avatar picture is NOT a picture of you?
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#13
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Re: 50NL fold Aces here? (ugh I hate saying that!!)
No it's not, why did you ask? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
Care to give your opinion on the hand in question? |
#14
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Re: 50NL fold Aces here? (ugh I hate saying that!!)
[ QUOTE ]
No it's not, why did you ask? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] Care to give your opinion on the hand in question? [/ QUOTE ] I think your range is pretty accurate though I don't know why you left out KK,JJ. Rapid, I agree that you can lay this one down, if you manage to do that ;-) Customer: I just asked because that girl is completely different from the other girls in avatar pics...gf or sister? [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] |
#15
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Re: 50NL fold Aces here? (ugh I hate saying that!!)
(Was also distracted by customer's avatar) LOL
While I think that range is fine, I also think it's flawed in that pokerstove gives all these hands an equal likelihood. The re-raise (while it could be smaller) serves to narrow villain's range, get value from overpair hands, and (admittedly) establish where I am in the hand. Maybe this is incorrect. |
#16
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Re: 50NL fold Aces here? (ugh I hate saying that!!)
Lol it's from jailbait. You mean different=not hot? I feel insulted :-) (although Coordi's previous avatar was the absolute best, I acknowledge that...)
we're getting little OT here... :-) |
#17
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Re: 50NL fold Aces here? (ugh I hate saying that!!)
[ QUOTE ]
I don't see many turn cards that improve our situation here. Villain's hard-pressed to think I hit a draw/set on this flop, so any medium card works more to his advantage than mine. What's the plan after just calling the flop raise? A agree about the bet size for sure, though. [/ QUOTE ] Well I would be hoping to hit my A, although unlikey, I would try to keep pot as small as possible. I would probably call 12$ turn bet, but fold to more, and hopefully he checks on river. If I expect to see him as a reg, the info could be valuable even if you did lose. The only reason I say this is there has been a rash of min CR's types playing lately. But I am not going broke with this. What do you think he thinks about you? That could help you to make your decision. |
#18
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Re: 50NL fold Aces here? (ugh I hate saying that!!)
Hey, I've just seen this thread (after I posted my version of the hand - I was villain to RE's hero). I had no idea that I was up against a 2+2 reg. It's interesting to see this hand from your point of view. I guess if I knew that I was up against such a solid player i would actually have been more confident abotu my bluff.
Something that I kind of vaguely thought about at the time - either I'm against a solid player i.e. at least a level 2 thinker (I suspected this to be the case) in which case he has aces and he will likely fold to a jam or I'm against a level 1 thinker and he might have JJ+ (even after his raise) and call with JJ/QQ. I don't know if this is a good way to think in this spot? Remember, I'm thinking as villain in this thread. Thoughts? |
#19
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Re: 50NL fold Aces here? (ugh I hate saying that!!)
So wait...you both posted an oddly similar hand with the same flop holding an overpair...and you were both either villain or hero both times?
/head asplodes |
#20
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Re: 50NL fold Aces here? (ugh I hate saying that!!)
[ QUOTE ]
So wait...you both posted an oddly similar hand with the same flop holding an overpair...and you were both either villain or hero both times? /head asplodes [/ QUOTE ]Considering all the stack sizes are the same I'm going to say they played this hand against each other. |
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