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#1
11-21-2007, 05:42 PM
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Re: Ultrashort ETF: Good if Feeling Bearish?
[ QUOTE ]
Damn, edit time expired. i just reread my post and i implied that all those places have 20 yr track records w/ short positions beating the market in risk adjusted returns. in fact, only the prop desks at lehman and goldman (though different people were running them) and bridgewater have that much consistent market beating experience. Barron [/ QUOTE ] The leap is thinking that I or any other mere mortal can do it. Furthermore the caveat was you had to be only short stocks for 20 years, and I think that it would have been tough to beat the market being only short stocks the last 20 years. There are lots of ways well capitalized investors with informational advantages can beat the markets both on the long and short side. I had a client who used to arbitrage the small price discrepancies between the off the run Treasuries and current long bond. These things are all possible but I see a whole board full of good poker players who think beating the financial markets is something they can do in their spare time with $100,000. I think they are ill advised to think they can trade the markets actively with any sort of edge. 
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#2
11-22-2007, 12:51 AM
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Re: Ultrashort ETF: Good if Feeling Bearish?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Damn, edit time expired. i just reread my post and i implied that all those places have 20 yr track records w/ short positions beating the market in risk adjusted returns. in fact, only the prop desks at lehman and goldman (though different people were running them) and bridgewater have that much consistent market beating experience. Barron [/ QUOTE ] The leap is thinking that I or any other mere mortal can do it. [/ QUOTE ] i never said it was easy. that wasn't what i was talking about. you claimed it was impossible to make money being short because of a risk premium you get for being long. i'm simply providing evidence to prove this is incorrect thinking. [ QUOTE ] Furthermore the caveat was you had to be only short stocks for 20 years, and I think that it would have been tough to beat the market being only short stocks the last 20 years. [/ QUOTE ] well i definitely misunderstood that. who would do that? my point is that it is possible to make money being selectively short...and beat the market doing so. if you have to have your hands tied to literally ONLY be short for a full 20 years, that wouldn't prove anything as nobody would do that... [ QUOTE ] There are lots of ways well capitalized investors with informational advantages can beat the markets both on the long and short side. [/ QUOTE ] ok...well then i misunderstood your initial complaint. if you know it is possible to beat the market on teh short side, why would it not be the case that being short can be +EV? [ QUOTE ] I had a client who used to arbitrage the small price discrepancies between the off the run Treasuries and current long bond. [/ QUOTE ] everybody did that. for a very long time. [ QUOTE ] These things are all possible but I see a whole board full of good poker players who think beating the financial markets is something they can do in their spare time with $100,000. I think they are ill advised to think they can trade the markets actively with any sort of edge. [/ QUOTE ] for the most part i agree. Barron
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#3
11-22-2007, 08:55 AM
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Re: Ultrashort ETF: Good if Feeling Bearish?
[ QUOTE ] These things are all possible but I see a whole board full of good poker players who think beating the financial markets is something they can do in their spare time with $100,000. I think they are ill advised to think they can trade the markets actively with any sort of edge. [/ QUOTE ] I agree with this statement 1000% Stephen [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]
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