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#11
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I understand some of what your saying in terms of my Standard dev.
However, the 30-35k hands is including my downswing (was only 4-5BI but some bad plays). I am not saying that this means I am a 5-6PTBB/100 winner at NL100, I just think that given the fact that I was consistently winning (even if it was above my true winrate of my abilities) + given the fact that my current downswing is way beyond any recognizable std dev (-19PTBB/100 over 7k hands), I think there is no argument that a lot of this downswing is probably from bad runs. FWIW KK,QQ,AKo,AKs,AQs are all losers in these 7k hands. Where as at NL100 AA/KK/QQ were easily my 3 biggest winners. In my session tonight, I lost money with 2pair, trips, straights, and flushs. (Lost 7BI) In 500 hands I didnt win a single pot over 40BB. |
#12
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The luck line or sklansky bucks line being negative doesnt mean you're unlucky it means your putting the money in bad, ie you sook.
Of course this can be [censored] up by getting coolered eg QQ vs AA and all the money goes in on AQ3 board and such. |
#13
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Ouch. Take some time off. Study a ton, maybe get some sweating/coaching. I would prob move up to 50nl if you can afford it.... did you adjust enough from 100nl to 25nl?... playing laggy at 25nl may be alot less effective?
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#14
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Lol OP, you're playing frick'n 25NL. 15 / 13 FTW my friend. It's not that hard.
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#15
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[ QUOTE ]
Ouch. Take some time off. Study a ton, maybe get some sweating/coaching. I would prob move up to 50nl if you can afford it.... did you adjust enough from 100nl to 25nl?... playing laggy at 100nl may not be effective ? [/ QUOTE ] |
#16
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move up where they respect your raises
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#17
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So did you fix your leaks?
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#18
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[ QUOTE ]
the 30-35k hands is including my downswing (was only 4-5BI but some bad plays). [/ QUOTE ] Ah, ok. That makes it more more plausible that you are a winning NL $100 player. [ QUOTE ] my current downswing is way beyond any recognizable std dev (-19PTBB/100 over 7k hands), I think there is no argument that a lot of this downswing is probably from bad runs. [/ QUOTE ] That is much lower than a plausible losing rate. However, it's much more likely that you can find some period (starting with hand 1) in which you are 3 standard deviations below average than that you will do in a fixed period. So, it's not clear that this is an outrageously bad streak as opposed to just uncommonly bad. However, there is a potential benefit. In case you are a losing player, losing rapidly saved you a lot of time. |
#19
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I'm almost certain I'm a lifetime loser at 25NL
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#20
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I'm almost certain I'm a lifetime loser at 25NL [/ QUOTE ] There is obv some big leak of mine but I have always done better at SSNL then MSNL (live and online). The problem was is that I didn't want to play underrolled and start at NL100 again. I might just take part of my live roll and put it online to roll myself for NL100. |
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