*** OFFICIAL 11/18/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***

[kyro]

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Now the Philly line is -9.5.

WTF is going on.

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wagerline has 60% of the money on philly -10.

sportsinteraction still has miami +10 (+100)

[mogwai316]

Line movement is mainly due to Westbrook missing his 2nd straight practice and listed as questionable, I'd assume. Go Eagles, but no action here due to John Beck being a completely unknown quantity, Westbrook status up in the air, and no confidence in us covering that large of a spread against anyone.

[silentbob]

Anyone have thoughts on Bengals -3? On paper, they're probably about even with the Cardinals on a neutral field so the line may not seem off. But the home/road splits are pretty drastic for both teams, and Arizona has one of the biggest HFAs in terms of DVOA as well. The Cardinals have also played a weakass schedule. Plus, it's only been one game, but the Bengals offense looked a lot more dangerous against the Ravens with Chris Henry back.

That said, the Bengals have been quite overrated in the last couple of years and the Cardinals defense is underrated. So I don't think there is a huge edge at -3, but a bet-able one at least.

[MacGuyV]

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Anyone have thoughts on Bengals -3? On paper, they're probably about even with the Cardinals on a neutral field so the line may not seem off. But the home/road splits are pretty drastic for both teams, and Arizona has one of the biggest HFAs in terms of DVOA as well. The Cardinals have also played a weakass schedule. Plus, it's only been one game, but the Bengals offense looked a lot more dangerous against the Ravens with Chris Henry back.

That said, the Bengals have been quite overrated in the last couple of years and the Cardinals defense is underrated. So I don't think there is a huge edge at -3, but a bet-able one at least.

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Even before I started to play poker I always thought there was way too much variance in a single season to analyze the impact of HFA. I'm surprised others on 2p2 apparently disagree; because I keep reading stuff about Pittsburgh being a great home team & a 'meh' road team and frankly it's baffling to me. The Bengals haven't been significantly better at home either when you look at the whole Palmer/Lewis era.

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone have thoughts on Bengals -3? On paper, they're probably about even with the Cardinals on a neutral field so the line may not seem off. But the home/road splits are pretty drastic for both teams, and Arizona has one of the biggest HFAs in terms of DVOA as well. The Cardinals have also played a weakass schedule. Plus, it's only been one game, but the Bengals offense looked a lot more dangerous against the Ravens with Chris Henry back.

That said, the Bengals have been quite overrated in the last couple of years and the Cardinals defense is underrated. So I don't think there is a huge edge at -3, but a bet-able one at least.

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-3 seems like way too fair of a line. Much larger edges in the week than this game, imo. It's one of the 5-6 I'm not playing.

[silentbob]

What are the arguments for betting Arizona +3?

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Even before I started to play poker I always thought there was way too much variance in a single season to analyze the impact of HFA.

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Football Outsiders calculated it based on home/road DVOA from 1996-2006. Arizona's HFA ranked third behind Kansas City and Minnesota.

[FastPlaySlow]

Here are my picks for tomorrow, I feel they are very strong.

St. Louis (-2.5)
Cleveland (-2.5)
Tampa Bay (-3)
Pittsburg (-9.5)

---------------

The matchups:

St. Louis vs SF
Cleveland vs Baltimore
Tampa Bay vs Atlanta
Pittsburg vs Jets

[MacGuyV]

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What are the arguments for betting Arizona +3?

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Even before I started to play poker I always thought there was way too much variance in a single season to analyze the impact of HFA.

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Football Outsiders calculated it based on home/road DVOA from 1996-2006. Arizona's HFA ranked third behind Kansas City and Minnesota.

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Cool. Got the complete list? I imagine Buffalo is up there too & Carolina is last.

[Murphinator]

I've got...

Cle -2.5, -108
Det ML, +130
KC/Ind U42,+105
Min/Oak U35.5,-102

[silentbob]

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Cool. Got the complete list? I imagine Buffalo is up there too & Carolina is last.

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No complete list but the article provides the top 10 and discusses the issue in greater detail here. Buffalo is at #8.