#11
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Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?
ok I just did a bunch of math for this with a calculator.
Fev = future equity (which I have due to 2 poor players with short stacks). (1) Before the hand: My equity: $699.8 + Fev Joe's equity: $666.9 + Fev (2) If I fold AKo. My equity: $680.8 + Fev Joe's equity: $707.5 + Fev (3) I call AKo. Assuming I'm 60/40 vs. his range. (could be higher considering he folds his worst hands and probably doesn't push AA/KK.) (3a) I win. My equity: $939 + Fev Joe's equity: 0 (3b) I lose. My equity: $199.3 Joe's equity: $915.6 + Fev Total: (.6)($939 + Fev) + (.4)($199.3) = $643.12 +~(.5)Fev and Joe's: (.4)(915.6 + Fev) = $366 + (.4)Fev Conclusion: I lose $37.68 and about half of my future edge by calling. Joe loses $341.5 and 60% of his future edge when I call him. I'm willing to sacriface $37.68 equity to cost Joe $341.5, because in the future it will be correct for him not to push as light. If in the future he folds his J6 in this spot I either get a walk, or call a short stacks push, with the same 60/40 edge, a result which will probably raise my equity by more than the $37.68 I lost in this game. |
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