GPSTS conference 11/10/07 at Harvard Law School: My Thesis

[0524432]

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Once they understand the similarities, we can help the understand how luck (deviations from expectation) has only an affect on the short term.

Thoughts/Discussion?

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So what you're saying is if I get hit in a car crash by a drunk driver and die this has no long term effect?

I can now sleep easier.

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Please explain your thought process. I don't understand how you came to this conclusion....

[RikaKazak]

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Once they understand the similarities, we can help the understand how luck (deviations from expectation) has only an affect on the short term.

Thoughts/Discussion?

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So what you're saying is if I get hit in a car crash by a drunk driver and die this has no long term effect?

I can now sleep easier.

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ZOMG that's obviously not what he's saying

You're like the retard at the poker table that says, well...poker isn't a game of skill, cause this one time in a tournament i got it all in pf with AA and lost....so obviously it's a game of luck.

[felixleong]

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Poker is chastised constanty because of the well known luck factor involved in the game. As I spoke with Harvard Law professor Charles Nesson about on Saturday, our goal through the GPSTS should be to help people realize how much luck is involved in every single day of their lives, through work, relationships, family, etc. Think about how many crucial factors along your lifeline have been completely out of your control.

Once they understand the similarities, we can help the understand how luck (deviations from expectation) has only an affect on the short term. Like in poker, it is not the presence of luck in the short term, but the level of SKILL over the long term which will affect the outcome and SUCCESS we achieve in our lifetime.

Thoughts/Discussion?

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wow , that sounds very interesting.
yeah luck affects a lot of things in life

I'm curious how do calculate luck?

[felixleong]

luck exist anywhere everywhere

i get outdrawn on the river in poker and lose a big pot

i can also get "bad beat" at work if my boss catchs me now posting at 2+2 forum instead of focusing on my current project

[img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

luck comes and goes
skill is forever
Felix

[0524432]

My point exactly.....now IYO, how does this lend itself to the argument going on through legislation right now?

[0524432]

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Poker is chastised constanty because of the well known luck factor involved in the game. As I spoke with Harvard Law professor Charles Nesson about on Saturday, our goal through the GPSTS should be to help people realize how much luck is involved in every single day of their lives, through work, relationships, family, etc. Think about how many crucial factors along your lifeline have been completely out of your control.

Once they understand the similarities, we can help the understand how luck (deviations from expectation) has only an affect on the short term. Like in poker, it is not the presence of luck in the short term, but the level of SKILL over the long term which will affect the outcome and SUCCESS we achieve in our lifetime.

Thoughts/Discussion?

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wow , that sounds very interesting.
yeah luck affects a lot of things in life

I'm curious how do calculate luck?

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That is a good question, but not one I can answer. I'm 22 yrs old and have absolutely no educational background in this area. I've formed these opinions from my own experiences and observations.

I would love to see a response from anyone who could even begin to formulate any kind of equation that ends intself to this topic though....can't imagine how.....but that would really give me a lot of hope for the sustained prestige of these forums....

[MiltonFriedman]

"I'm curious how do calculate luck? "

Ask a standard deviant.

[waarior]

I think there is a general unwillingness to accept such a conclusion because it runs contrary to the American ideal. If you work hard --> success will follow. The ethos doesn't really allow for someone to work hard and fail, even if it was just bad luck.

There is obviously a spectrum of luck----skill with poker falling somewhere in the middle. Clearly more towards the luck limit than skill in the short term.

I think the most interesting comparison would be to sports. One of the reasons I believe they are so popular is the belief that the winner "deserves" to win through their hard work, preparation etc. Luck is grudgingly acknowledged sometimes but its contributions discounted.

On one hand, you have poker where most view it as predominately luck and on the other, sports where it is primarily viewed as completely skill based. Interestingly the more games ones plays in both activities the less luck involved. But that is no consolation for the team that suffers from the bad call, or the hand of god in the final.

Definitely an interesting topic though.

[0524432]

Thats the point, where is the line that is crossed that makes a suckout in poker more or less "lucky" than one of the MANY uncontrollable events that occur in sports? Which I am not even going to begin to list ffs....

What it is that makes, for example, Brian or Taylor's preparation to play the HSNL games with the best of the best any less respectable than the preparation that an NFL team takes in the film room?

[Phreak]

this may sound retarded to you but heres my shot.

could u maybe give an x for the "long run luck factor". x=x for everyone yadda yadda thats fine in the infinately long run

i think when people say zomg long run 1.4million hands fgators sucks lolz, and that whatever happens in the "long run" must be all skill is not entirely accurate. i dont think the long run of poker can rightfully be obtained.

if someone goes on for a sick heater that lasts 10k hands, can u honestly tell me that the "luck" will even out over 1.4 million hands...i do not buy into that

p.s. im not fgators