$114 The hand that made me move to cashaments.

[suzzer99]

[ QUOTE ]
Suzzer,
If he has a range of JJ-KK and he only calls river with KK river shove is +EV since he will fold 80% of the time. I think his turn check percentage with JJ-QQ is much higher than his turn check percentage with AK/99/88. I'm confused how you think I think he has 44?
What is the worst hand I value shove here?
AK? AA? 33?

Edit: Also this thread has a lot of views, but very few replies. Commenting on difficult hands and being wrong is a lot better for your game than 904390423 posting LOLZ snap call or LOLZ can you believe this guy thinks he should play for first.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would he bet 300 with JJ/QQ? Value bet? I think check/call would be a much more profitable line for him. But if he's gonna donk bet it like that, then I have no guarantee he's going to fold getting over 2-1. More likely your shove is going to fold out a hand you were ahead of anyway.

I agree his turn check % with AK or a set is low. That's why I said low prob. But sometimes they do that after leading a flop 3-handed with a set, to try to induce you to bet.

I said had 33 not 44, because with the title of the thread maybe you meant something ridiculous happened.

I never try to put villians on putting me on a hand unless I know them well. You said he isn't very good. I doubt he's hand-reading you.

He showed major strength before the flop, on the flop, and decent strength on the river. Turn is weird. But 3 out of 4 strong bets means I'm not counting on him to fold.

[Pudge714]

Vbetting the river with JJ/QQ is so standard. I almost never have a king. Check call I might vbet worse, but I never have a bluff.

[suzzer99]

Yeah he could be value betting. I just would like a read that he's a better player to actually put you on something like TT. Most people just play their cards, or try to get deceptive with monsters. I want a positive read this guy is really thinking before I put him on a thin VB here.

[Pudge714]

Suzzer,
I have a read that he is decent and JJ/QQ aren't thin here.

[suzzer99]

If he thinks you're a calling station then fine.

But if he's good like you say, and supposedly he thinks you're good--then he's repping that he's repping a K (IE - repping a post-oak bluff), thinking you will look him up. I dunno. I can count on zero hands the times I've done that or had it done to me in a SNG, at least that I can recall.

You'd pretty much have to put him on making a bluff that looks like a value bet pretending to be a post-oak bluff (double-reverse-post-oak?) to call there. Way too many levels for a SNG IMO.

[Crosby]

Although I don't think it's hard to imagine him value betting JJ or QQ here, I'm not sure how to weigh that likelihood compared to him checking AK/set. I think JJ or QQ is a good bet, and you have your read, but many people would miss it. I would prefer to bet a set or AK, but many people wouldn't necessarily. A set might figure they'll lose you here, and AK might fear losing value/want to control the pot fearing your flop call. An important factor to me is what his preflop range is in the first place. You say he's between standard tag and lag, could he show up with AQ/AJ/66 type hands that he's bluffing with? I would just be folding these types of hands UTG, but if he can have them it complicates matters significantly.

[Pudge714]

To everyone you realize the difference between QQ and AK is based on me having like K9s or floating AK.

[citanul]

people,

can anyone posting anything about this hand at minimum produce 2 pieces of information?

1) what you thing opp has
2) what you think opp thinks hero has

thanks,

c

[suzzer99]

1) KK, maybe JJ or QQ, lesser chance of set on flop or AK

2) If villian is a 2p2 clone - TT/JJ or weirdly played AK or monster.

If villian is just a standard regular then I rarely try to assume that he'll put us on a tight range preflop (no suited connectors, suited aces, etc.) Or that he'll assume we won't slowplay a set, etc. When you take away that info. he really doesn't have much clue what we have. Which makes it hard for me to see him putting pudge on TT or JJ and value-betting JJ or QQ here. But I guess in that case he could just be betting because he thinks he's good, and he's not thinking about what pudge might actually call with.

[Hercules]

Pudge, your line doesnt make any sense for having a monster. Obv its easy to say since i know ur hand.

I think i only played very few hands in my life with you, so i dont know ur game at all. But i assume ur playing a somewhat standart early sng-game.

- Your calling range on that flop is pretty much 88-QQ. I dunno how u play sets, but i think you would have at least bet the turn, if u have chosen to sloplay on the flop.
(Even if u slowplay AA\KK pre, u pretty much pop it up on the flop prolly)

-I dont think u call pre with 22\33 and u most likely rr with kings. So, i dunno, but you simply have to be FOS on that river. Maybe u show up a small % with a tricky played 88\99, but if Villain is thinking he snaps with JJ-AA\AK, cuz they are basically the same hands in this spot and u are either FOS or have a set. And since u have the set only a low %,...Obv his range is more weighted towards JJ-QQ, but that doesnt really matter.