#1
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NL50: 66 UTG. Thin value bet against calling station. Ok?
Villain is pretty loose and post flop pretty much a calling station, running 43/19/0.8 over about a 100 hands. His PF raises are minraises mostly though.
I'm running at 18/11 at this table. Is this value bet on the river ok? The Q is a little scary but he did not show any strenght so far so I can't give him credit for that, right? Comments very welcome... Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players LeggoPoker Hand History Converter SB: $70.85 BB: $67.95 Hero (UTG): $48.20 UTG+1: $57.05 MP1: $33.50 MP2: $51.35 CO: $94.25 BTN: $94.80 Pre-Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (UTG) Hero calls $0.50, 4 folds, BTN calls $0.50, SB folds, BB checks Flop: ($1.75) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players) BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $1.50</font>, BTN calls $1.50, BB folds Turn: ($4.75) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players) Hero checks, BTN checks River: ($4.75) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">Hero bets $3</font> |
#2
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Re: NL50: 66 UTG. Thin value bet against calling station. Ok?
what do you hope he will call with?
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#3
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Re: NL50: 66 UTG. Thin value bet against calling station. Ok?
I guess he's hoping for calls by 34, A5, junk like that. This is about as razor thin as you can get IMO (i.e. I wouldn't) but you would know better than me. What else has he shown down?
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#4
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Re: NL50: 66 UTG. Thin value bet against calling station. Ok?
I wouldn't be surprised if a Q9 kind of hand looks you up. There aren't really any tangible draws on the flop and with that AF its possible that he will not bet his Q on any street.
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#5
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Re: NL50: 66 UTG. Thin value bet against calling station. Ok?
[ QUOTE ]
I guess he's hoping for calls by 34, A5, junk like that. This is about as razor thin as you can get IMO (i.e. I wouldn't) but you would know better than me. What else has he shown down? [/ QUOTE ] That's pretty exactly what I hope for, like every flush draw with third or fourth pair. We have to remember that he really is a calling station, that's exactly why I make this (I admit pretty thin) value bet here. And he really showed down a lot of strange hands so far like As8s when board was 8 T Qs 2s K and he paid off KQ on the river... Anyway would like to hear some more opinions, I'll post results later if there is interest... |
#6
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Re: NL50: 66 UTG. Thin value bet against calling station. Ok?
Actually, I think he probably would have bet a Q or maybe even a pair of 5's or 7's on the river. I think that he plays JJ-88/66/33 this way about 50% of the time collectively.
I think you can bet it. You are going to get called by 22 and A-high often enough, imo. |
#7
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Re: NL50: 66 UTG. Thin value bet against calling station. Ok?
There was no flush draw on the flop, so 43 is the only draw which could have paired. If he might calldown with some ridiculous A-high hand, I like it.
[ QUOTE ] I think he probably would have bet a Q or maybe even a pair of 5's or 7's on the river. [/ QUOTE ] Villain is button, we don't know his river action yet. |
#8
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Re: NL50: 66 UTG. Thin value bet against calling station. Ok?
[ QUOTE ]
There was no flush draw on the flop, so 43 is the only draw which could have paired. If he might calldown with some ridiculous A-high hand, I like it. [ QUOTE ] I think he probably would have bet a Q or maybe even a pair of 5's or 7's on the river. [/ QUOTE ] Villain is button, we don't know his river action yet. [/ QUOTE ] Meh, sure we do... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] |
#9
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Re: NL50: 66 UTG. Thin value bet against calling station. Ok?
meh, i guess bet. i would usually opt for a check/call but it doesn't seem like he will bluff us very often. It just sucks b/c even though I doubt he is folding a pair we beat, there are just so few hands he could have that we beat with which he could reasonably call.
If you really think he looks you up with A high then I like it. |
#10
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Re: NL50: 66 UTG. Thin value bet against calling station. Ok?
I;d check it still
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