I dare to ask a preflop question

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
So many more combinations of AK than AA/KK + dead money = easy cap.

[/ QUOTE ]

The second part of your equation makes me wonder. Would you auto-cap QQ in a 4-handed pot with the same action? 3-handed? Heads up?

The hand count isn't *that* favorable. 16-12 is about about 57-43, and I'm a huge dog (with bad RIO flopping an overpair) against AA/KK and a small favorite against AK. Considering preflop equity against those hands HU,

20% against 12 hands = 2.4 wins
50% against 16 hands = 8 wins

So 10.4 wins out of 28 hands is hovering near 37% equity. The extra players in the pot still have *some* equity, and when I have the best hand, they're usually taking it from me and my 8 wins. So in a 3-handed pot it seems like I'm coming close to break-even and so this does not become an auto-cap anymore. Does this analysis seem correct?

[sweetjazz]

Without trying a stove, I'd think about what kind of boards are likely to result in you being a winner. First you have the times when your QQ is the highest overpair and it manages to hold up. Then you have the times where you manage to back into a four card flush or straight that is good. Finally you have the times when you spike a third Q (about 20% of the time) and your hand holds up. You'll lose with your sets fairly often when they don't fill up and someone makes a straight or flush. Even so, I'd imagine your equity in this spot is 25% or so, maybe as high as 30% if the cold-callers are willing to play absolute junk in this spot.

[ProfessorBen]

How do you have ~8k posts and not use stove?

Liberal: (Wide range for coldcallers, Villain 4-bets JJ+, AK, AQs)

---
5,339,631 games 18.344 secs 291,083 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.448% 28.98% 01.60% 1547484 85631.00 { QQ }
Hand 1: 31.502% 30.70% 02.02% 1639020 108039.75 { JJ+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 2: 13.024% 12.87% 00.66% 687219 35090.58 { JJ-22, A2s+, K7s+, Q8s+, J7s+, T6s+, 96s+, 85s+, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, A8o+, K9o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 97o+, 87o, 76o, 65o }
Hand 3: 13.010% 12.86% 00.65% 686681 34855.42 { JJ-22, A2s+, K7s+, Q8s+, J7s+, T6s+, 96s+, 85s+, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, A8o+, K9o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 97o+, 87o, 76o, 65o }
Hand 4: 13.015% 12.87% 00.65% 687000 34812.25 { JJ-22, A2s+, K7s+, Q8s+, J7s+, T6s+, 96s+, 85s+, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, A8o+, K9o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 97o+, 87o, 76o, 65o }


---

Conservative: (Tighter range for coldcallers, Villain 3-bets KK+, AK)
---
5,752,745 games 10.031 secs 573,496 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.073% 29.74% 00.18% 1711003 10168.27 { QQ }
Hand 1: 37.394% 38.79% 01.07% 2231254 61417.18 { KK+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 2: 11.516% 11.42% 00.85% 656988 49056.02 { JJ-55, A7s+, K9s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s, A8o+, KTo+, QTo+, J9o+, T9o, 98o, 87o, 76o }
Hand 3: 11.509% 11.42% 00.85% 656794 48856.52 { JJ-55, A7s+, K9s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s, A8o+, KTo+, QTo+, J9o+, T9o, 98o, 87o, 76o }
Hand 4: 11.507% 11.41% 00.85% 656557 48961.02 { JJ-55, A7s+, K9s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s, A8o+, KTo+, QTo+, J9o+, T9o, 98o, 87o, 76o }

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
How do you have ~8k posts and not use stove?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not that I don't use stove, but as much as possible, I try to break down situations in my head to strengthen my intuition and to practice making quick and accurate estimates.

I find it rather amusing that the difference between the two situations is less than 2% (in terms of hero's equity) and that the brute force computation seems to suggest that the cutoff of an auto-cap is likely right around 2 villains, which is where the estimate found it to be.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]

How do you have ~8k posts and not use stove?

[/ QUOTE ]

i have over 8k posts and i've never used pokerstove once in my life.

anyways, you guys seem to be underestimating just how nitty vegas players are so i wouldn't really mind not capping here, but i would almost always in this spot for the reasons sweetjazz gave though i'm not nearly as optimistic about how often we will actually have the best hand and still have the best hand at the end unimproved.

[ProfessorBen]

I only bring the idea that you should be using stove because it's clear that this decision is all about equity because other factors play a minimal part.

What does Pokerstove do?



In regards to how nitty the Vegasers are, I used the hand ranges given by OP(even removed JTs) and did a sensitivity analysis. Thanks for the tip CDC, will be useful in a couple of weeks.

[ProfessorBen]

I'm not a pokerstove junkie myself and use it sparingly, but it's really much better than the alternative which is making the bad assumptions that are in your analysis. We are better than 50% against AK as QQ vs. AK is much closer to 54-57%, depending on whether AK is suited(Again, less combinations of suited). That percentage also assumes that villain sees all 5 cards, which is not a guarantee.

The above arguments are all nitboxing by me, because the reason we cap is primarily because we have huge equity against the coldcallers in the field. Again, if your inputs are different as CDC argues then the whole dynamic of this problem changes. As stated, this is an easy cap.

Again, Pokerstove is not some almighty religious text that I refer to for every hand I play. It is much better than saying "well, we have 37%(short) and the coldcallers take some of it."

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not a pokerstove junkie myself and use it sparingly, but it's really much better than the alternative which is making the bad assumptions that are in your analysis. We are better than 50% against AK as QQ vs. AK is much closer to 54-57%, depending on whether AK is suited(Again, less combinations of suited). That percentage also assumes that villain sees all 5 cards, which is not a guarantee.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain is going to see the turn almost regardless of how the flop comes down and how the action comes out, and if there isn't too much action it is not uncommon to see him on the river because the pot is gigantic.

I like the 50% number in this case because in a huge pot because I'm also in a spot where I generally don't have some RIO postflop as I will flop a hand that is strong (ie, overpair) and unlikely to improve, but is subject to being drawn out on -- assuming I'm not in an overpair vs better overpair situation.

[ QUOTE ]
It is much better than saying "well, we have 37%(short) and the coldcallers take some of it."

[/ QUOTE ]

How much better is it? My heads up estimate was 37%. Stove gives 40%. Going from hot/cold preflop sims to real life play, a few percent is basically negligible as the effects of postflop play swamp the equity difference, especially with a hand like QQ.

I understand being hesitant to use off-the-cuff estimates, but I think you're overstating your case here.

[ProfessorBen]

Better is better.

This is one of those topics I'm done with. I will continue to hunt for that elusive 3-4% and you can ignore it.