*** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***

[Machmood]

The line has moved as much as 1.5, you dont see this as beeing enuff for the amount of action on DET. On my book 94 percent of the action on on DET and the line moved from+1.5 to even now

[Machmood]

also, correct me if im wrong but dont people concider the early money to be the "smart" money....if this is true then on my book within 12 hours it went from Det +1.5 to even, meaning the smart money took det, the line moved now its holding, am i 100 percent off here, i prob am so correct me please

[TooTallT]

You need to look at big books that have lots of sharp and square players to really know what the market looks like. Just because one book moves from Det +1.5 to PK doesn't mean the whole market is behaving that way. Put it this way, if 94% are on Detroit, why don't you think your book has moved this to Det -3? Shouldn't they be dying for Arizona bets now? They haven't, and they aren't, because they're either getting the 6% are making huge Arizona bets or they are comfortable holding a big Zona position.

Pinnacle is usually a fairly good barometer of the entire market, even though they don't accept US customers anymore. Comparing Pinny, WSEX, and Bookmaker/CRIS probably give a good representation of market movements. Pinny's an extremely successful book and yet always deals -105 or better lines. That's not by accident. That's why many people pay attention to the "Pinny lean." It's not foolproof obviously, but it's one good indicator among many.