2/4 - I see monsters

[gobbledygeek]

2/4 B&M, 10 players, loose & passive

Villain doesn't bluff, is typical passive player but isn't afraid to put lottsa bets in when he thinks he's ahead.

Preflop (10 players): Hero is UTG with K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Hero raises, UTG+1 coldcalls, Villain coldcalls, Button coldcalls, BB calls

Flop (5 players, 10 SB): K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
check to Hero who bets, fold, Villain 2bets, folded to Hero who 3bets, Villain 4bets, Hero puts money in the pot to 5bet but is then told by dealer that 4bet cap applies since round didn't begin heads-up

Turn (2 players, 9 BB): 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero bets, Villain calls

River (2 players, 11 BB): 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero bets, Villain raises, Hero wimps out and calls.

I failed poker 101 here. My thinking at the time is with aggressive flop play this villain had a set of 9's or a set of 8's, therefore it was 50/50 his quads came in and thus no point in 3betting/calling. Point out the error in my thought process.

GcluelessnoobwhoisashamedtomakemistakeslikethisG

[Lethe]

Er, is there a serious question here GG?

You have the nut FH. The only hand that beats you is 99. I'm raising until the cows come home. He has 98 or K9 like, all the time.

[mikeca]

Well, every once in a long while the villain will have quads here, on the flop he probably has two pair or maybe AK suited in spades. Would he raise preflop with AK?

On the river, it looks me that he flopped two pair (k9 or 98) or a set (99 or 88) and has now filled up. You are ahead of all of those except 99. He probably has you on AK. You are winning this pot 90% of the time. I would go at least 2 or 3 more bets.

[pjf1969]

He could have 89 for a flopped two pair if in his pre flop coldcall range. He also closed the action on the flop, not disuaded by your 3-beat dispite the pfr in a ten handed game, you may be good-I think you did the right thing just call and see.

[One Outer]

Good God, man. You don't need any input to know what you did.

[gobbledygeek]

Ya, you guys nailed it, I only posted this for the benefit of other noobs. My horrendous mistake was overlooking that Villain could easily play K9 or 98 the same way on the flop, therefore it wasn't 50/50 on the river that he had quads.

Against typical live 2/4 player, how many bets would you usually do? Does anyone 5bet this cuz now I'm thinking that might be entering spewy territory?

[Aces McGee]

gg,

Let's assume for the sake of discussion that [ QUOTE ]
this villain had a set of 9's or a set of 8's

[/ QUOTE ] is true.

In such a case, [ QUOTE ]
therefore it was 50/50 his quads came in

[/ QUOTE ] is not true.

If we put him on a set of 9s or a set of 8s on the flop, we are essentially putting him on six hands, not two:

9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

When the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] shows up on the river, suddenly one-third of this range is no longer possible. If we stick to the hand range you assigned him on the flop, he can now only have:

9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Thus, by the river, it is three times as likely that he has eights full than quad nines.

There are other considerations, of course. He could have a bigger range on the flop. Or he could be so passive that he would put you on KK when you went to five-bet the flop and only raise the river here with quads. But your contention that he is equally likely to have 99 or 88 independent of his action on the river is incorrect.

-McGee

[gobbledygeek]

Wow, thanks McGee - I didn't even notice that error.

[KitCloudkicker]

[ QUOTE ]
Or he could be so passive that he would put you on KK when you went to five-bet the flop and only raise the river here with quads.

[/ QUOTE ]

mcgee,

if an old passive nit 5 bets me on this flop after raising UTG, i put him on KK 99%. not say i would fold a set of nines or eights, but i wouldnt be any more bets in UI.

[gobbledygeek]

[ QUOTE ]

if an old passive nit 5 bets me on this flop after raising UTG, i put him on KK 99%. not say i would fold a set of nines or eights, but i wouldnt be any more bets in UI.

[/ QUOTE ]

But you're still 3betting my hand, right?