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#1
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Re: Nasty pl5cd hand
IF his worst hand predraw is QQ, you're in terrible shape
because somebody drawing three to XXabc will make X's full or quad X's MUCH more often than something like yyyXX. Ignoring other cards (such as the three jacks, two threes, king and presumed AA or KK in SB's hand), out of the improvement combinations to make a boat or better when drawing three to a pair XXabc, there are: 45 for quads 126 for a boat of the form XXXyy 39 for a boat of the form XXyyy Also, some of the 39 boats of the form XXyyy will be like AAAXX, KKKXX or QQQXX. Still, the type of hand will be of the form XXXyy only about 18.6% of the time. Here, you have a very easy fold (your "pot odds" are only about 1/3). Suppose instead, the big blind could have TT OR 99 (not impossible since you were the button and could be on a semibluff or steal and the SB hasn't shown any strength). Let's also credit the SB with one of either AA, KK or QQ (not unreasonable since he doesn't need to defend with TT and JJ is an impossibility if you end up with JJJ33). Now, how do you stack up against the BB's range? So, let's assume the SB has AA (you've pitched a king) and so we take out two aces, one king, three jacks and two threes from the deck. [ It won't change the analysis too much even if the SB has QQ.] Then, the BB could have any of the following predraw: AA: 1 KK: 3 QQ: 6 TT: 6 99: 6 (these are only approximate "weights") With AA, there are only 3 combinations of KKKAA and 6 for QQQAA and 4x8 = 32 for weaker boats (only eight ranks from deuce up to ten with three's excluded since you can't get three of them). With KK, there are 56 combinations of KKKyy, 4 of QQQKK and 32 weaker boats as before. With QQ, there are 112 combinations of QQQyy, and 32 weaker boats, but also 40 combinations of quads (extra card can only be one of 48-8=40 cards). With TT, there are 40 combinations of quads, 1 KKKTT, 4 QQQTT, 112 TTTyy and 28 other weaker boats (140 weaker boats) and similarly with 99. Effectively, the approximate "weights" are: quads: 3x6x40 = 720 bigger boats: 9+3x60+6x112+2x6x5= 921 smaller boats: 32+3x32+6x32+2x6x140 = 2000 Here, the approximate chances you have a better boat is about 54.9% so JJJ33 is just a slight favorite. You had to call $222.60 in a pot that would total $645.6 minus the rake so that would be an easy call. If your opponent's range DID NOT include 99, the numbers would now look like: quads: 480 bigger boats: 891 smaller boats: 1160 so you would only have about a 45.8% chance of winning, but you still call, although now you lose most of the time. (Hopefully, the math above isn't that far off, but the summary is adequate!) SUMMARY ======= Call if there was some reasonable chance your opponent started with TT (or worse); otherwise, folding is better. |
#2
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Re: Nasty pl5cd hand
Wonderful post bigpooch. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]
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#3
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Re: Nasty pl5cd hand
Thanks for taking the time to figure/type all that out. He's never over-calling TT here, and I doubt he calls it with the sb out either. So I guess even JJJ33 becomes an easy fold if he doesn't push AAA.
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#4
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Re: Nasty pl5cd hand
[ QUOTE ]
Call if there was some reasonable chance your opponent started with TT (or worse); otherwise, folding is better. [/ QUOTE ] ok, so what would he call 3x BB predraw and draw 3 with? TT? JJ? there goes any reasonable chance... |
#5
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Re: Nasty pl5cd hand
That is definitely a tough beat List. The odds of boating or better on a 3 draw are about 75-1, no? On another note, you certainly know your players well...Flop is a friend of mine and actually is a full time player...he's very good...you described his game pretty accurately with very few words. Best of luck in the future!
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#6
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Re: Nasty pl5cd hand
Also, it's very likely you're dead here, but you guys definitely figured that out...I'm guessing kings full is about the worst he's holding...
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