Dancing With the Stars 5

[darko3131]

Man I wish I could play at matchbook, I mop up on any reality shows. I refuse to deposit into an online sportsbook though, anyone know how I can get a couple of bucks on there maybe with a promo code or anything?

Just wanted to weigh in on the Sabrina elimination. I actually wasn't shocked she went. It was no secret her scores were carrying her, so scoring a 25 was trouble. I thought for sure the bottom 2 would have been Jane and Sabrina with Jane being the boot though. Oh well, the old food poisoning trick won't save the old bag this week hopefully- because I didn't envision my money being tied up for 2 weeks.

[thing85]

lol...Bodog has Helio to win at +100 and male to win at +130.

[darko3131]

Word is that Helio's phone line didn't work for a good 10-15 minutes last night. Since voting is only open for what 30-60 minutes? that can't be good. This Jane lady is pretty good, she fakes food poisioning one week to take out Sabrina, now she's jamming phone lines in an attempt to take out Helio, what's next taking a lead pipe to Mel's knee [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I don't watch on Monday's so I'm not sure how the scores were but Jane is bottom 2 this week, who joins her is a ? between Cameron, Mel, and hate to say it Helio.

[llabb]

Lol at the Jane comments, funny stuff. Where is your "word" from? There's reports of non-functioning phone lines every week, this year more than usual. Different parts of the country experience different difficulties, not sure what the deal is. There's less volume than AI, so it shouldn't be local exchange volume.

Scores were:
Mel 54
Jennie 53
Helio 52
Marie 52
Cam 51
Jane 50

Matchbook oddsmakers favor Jane going home, but there's tons of value if you think anyone else is going.

[centris]

Nice work Darko 3 for 3! Any other suggestions? Here is a cross post taht I made in teh sports betting chatter thread:

There is a really tiny arb available for Dancing with teh Stars betting:

Males wins Bodog +145
Melanie wins Matchbook +350
Maria wins Bodog +500
Jennie wins Bodog +550

The corresponding probabilities add up to less than 1 meaning it is arbable, but I am not sure how to calculate the correct proportion to bet on each. And since the bodog bets are capped at 50$ I bet it is worth less than a dollar. But generally does anyone have a link to an arb calculator for more than two bets?

[llabb]

http://www.scalpulator.com/

Scalpulator Results:

Bet 1: $50.00 @ +145
Bet 2: $27.22 @ +350
Bet 3: $20.42 @ +500
Bet 4: $18.85 @ +550

Total Investment: $116.49

Total Return: $122.50

Total Profit: $6.01

ROI: 5.16%

[darko3131]

yeah thanks, glad to help some people out. I'm pretty happy with this season so far my horse is still in at 17/2 and now he's the favorite with 5 left.

If you want to take that arb. it seems alright, 5% ROI and your money is only held for under 3 weeks isn't too bad. I used to be all about arbs, but lately I've been locking in on a pick and picking a hedge a little later. Apolo Ohno and Jordin Sparks were my last two horses, not to shabby.

The price for male on bodog seems pretty good to me. you get the favorite in Helio and Cameron. if for some reason Helio did get eliminated before the finale Cameron would be a nice darkhorse, being the only good looking man left vs. 2 females in a show where 80% of the voting is done by women. I highly doubt Helio and Cameron would be the next two eliminations leaving the bet with no one in the finale.

Should be an interesting next two weeks. I know I haven't bothered to vote yet b/c I felt like Helio would slide through for a while, but now is time to start. I'm a member of a couple sports boards so I'm going to ask everyone on them to vote for the last athlete on the show to win it. If anyone on here has bet on Helio please do the same.