#1
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TPTK on the flop, c/c or c/r?
The villain is a standard aggressive player with about 22.9/17.34/2.15 over 1240 hands. c/c or c/r on the flop?
Prima Poker skin Limit Holdem Ring game Limit: $1/$2 6 players Converter Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#cc0000">UTG raises</font>, 3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero 3-bets</font>, BB folds, <font color="#cc0000">UTG caps</font>, Hero calls. Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (9SB, 2 players) Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG bets</font>, Hero..? |
#2
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Re: TPTK on the flop, c/c or c/r?
[ QUOTE ]
The villain is a standard aggressive player with about 22.9/17.34/2.15 over 1240 hands. c/c or c/r on the flop? [/ QUOTE ] not enough information, need more significant digits for all stats. |
#3
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Re: TPTK on the flop, c/c or c/r?
Just count combos yo!
You need 67% eq to raise since you are gonna call a 3-bet. Assuming he will call with JJ: You have about 90% eq against 6 combos of JJ and 12 AK You have about 20% eq against 6 KK You have about 0% against 1 QQ You have about 10% against 3 AA (18*0.9 + 6*0.2 + 3*0.1)/28 ~ 63% call down If you can add KQ to his range you can prolly raise. |
#4
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Re: TPTK on the flop, c/c or c/r?
There is TT in his range, it looks too close. Can we b/f a river blank against an instant raise ?
edit: he takes the free card with Ak on the turn quite often and AQ is in his range not a good idea probably. |
#5
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Re: TPTK on the flop, c/c or c/r?
actually,
90% -> 77% 20% ok 0% -> 2% 10% -> 9% 63% -> 54.784209185% (gotta be precise!) |
#6
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Re: TPTK on the flop, c/c or c/r?
[ QUOTE ]
actually, 90% -> 77% 20% ok 0% -> 2% 10% -> 9% 63% -> 54.784209185% (gotta be precise!) [/ QUOTE ] Oh yeah. AK has straight draw and JJ has bdsd. BTW that range I quoted is the tightest range we should expect. We need to add AQ which pulls our eq closer to 50% and lower pp's like TT, 99, 88. KQs is a possibility as well not to mention the odd tilt cap by T8s. |
#7
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Re: TPTK on the flop, c/c or c/r?
[ QUOTE ]
Just count combos yo! You need 67% eq to raise since you are gonna call a 3-bet. Assuming he will call with JJ: You have about 90% eq against 6 combos of JJ and 12 AK You have about 20% eq against 6 KK You have about 0% against 1 QQ You have about 10% against 3 AA (18*0.9 + 6*0.2 + 3*0.1)/28 ~ 63% call down If you can add KQ to his range you can prolly raise. [/ QUOTE ] How did you arrive at 67%? On the other hand, do I need 67% for any value raise? BTW, I've checked all his HH and found he r/ced his AQo, so I assume his 4b range UTG is: AQ+,99+ |
#8
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Re: TPTK on the flop, c/c or c/r?
How much you need depends on how villain will react to a raise.
So you are in a river spot where you beat villain 99 out of 100. I.e your eq is 99%. However if you raise villain will 3-bet his 1% where he is ahead of you and fold any hand that is loosing. So you will have to fold to a raise EV of raising is -1*0.01 + 0*0.99 = -0.01 So even if your eq is huge you cant make a profitable raise if villain is never calling a worse hand. Now back to this spot. If we assume that villain will call all worse hands and 3-bet all better hands then raising will win you 1 bet when ahead and loose you 2 bets when behind (given you call the 3-bet). This means that you are raising to win 1 bet when ahead and 2 bets when behind. So for this to be good you need to be ahead 2 in 3 times or 67%. However. This is such a simplified way to do things. If you want to do a precise EV analysis you need to make a range for villain, assume what he is gonna do with each hand given your action - not only on the flop but also on the turn and river and on every possible turn/river combo. Needless to say this is gonna be a huge calculation and by the tim eyou are done you could have won 100BB's just playing instead. So the 67% I quoted is just a loose estimate of how much you need in lack of a better and more precise analysis |
#9
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Re: TPTK on the flop, c/c or c/r?
I check call in these spots. This is WA/WB. You either have him reverse dominated or he's got you beat.
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#10
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Re: TPTK on the flop, c/c or c/r?
[ QUOTE ]
I check call in these spots. This is WA/WB. You either have him reverse dominated or he's got you beat. [/ QUOTE ] You need to c/r a guy like me or any other loosish guy with a wide preflop range |
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