turn donk bet puzzles me,(yet I am lucid, (maybe not)) Live 20/40

[RobA]

That's a tough spot. I think you did fine. After the pre-flop and flop action it sounds like there is 16SB/8BB in the pot. If the villain donks the turn and river, you have to put in 2BB to try and win 10BB (assuming the guy behind you folds the turn). You have to be good in a call down more than 1 in 6 times to make money (somebody check my math please).

So do you think your AQ is good more than 16% here? Would he donk with a weak A, or some other random pair that he was calling the flop light with? You've only see him play for 2 orbits, so maybe?

probably not - i think you're good more like 10%. curious what others think this number is...