FTP $750K : M=60 : KK OOP facing turn shove rr on scary board

[baltostar]

[ QUOTE ]
Baltosar: 2/3 of your decisions this hand were incorrect.

The fact that we have to talk about your 4th is a result of your poor play from other spots in the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

What are you referring to ?

Limping big pairs in EP didn't yield results in this hand, but that doesn't mean it's always 100% wrong.

I assume you're not referring to the flop. I likely have the best hand, but the board's got some draw potential, and there's always 1Ps improving. I think hero has to bet or could be facing 4 opponents on turn with 4 cards out. Betting folds out draws, hands that could evolve into draws, and lesser pairs, but brings along TPTK and TPGK.

I don't like c/r turn b/c of all the plausible 2P sets out there. Checking gives a free card to a very drawy board. Bet could have been a bit bigger, but I don't think it's a disaster.

[Rocco]

[ QUOTE ]
Limping big pairs in EP didn't yield results in this hand, but that doesn't mean it's always 100% wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, with deep stacks it's almost always 100% wrong to open-limp big pairs. I only do it on very few occasions when stacks are shallower and people are pushing pre-flop like every hand in order to survive. So, raise PF!

But now that you put yourself in this situation, just fold. Could be a combo-draw of course, but it definitely looks like two pair getting nervous.

[baltostar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Limping big pairs in EP didn't yield results in this hand, but that doesn't mean it's always 100% wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, with deep stacks it's almost always 100% wrong to open-limp big pairs. I only do it on very few occasions when stacks are shallower and people are pushing pre-flop like every hand in order to survive. So, raise PF!


[/ QUOTE ]

I like to mix-in big pair limps at a rate of about 8%. I use Harrington's watch rule: if the second hand on my wristwatch (which is not the exact time) is within 1st 5 secs, I limp. Unexploitable obviously.

Seems to me that people tend to play excessively tight in the 1st hour of the FTP $750K/$1M and big pairs have a lower avg expectation than later on. Limping is considerably below that avg expectation, obviously, but I think that doing it very occasionally adds the right kind of variance.

[ QUOTE ]
But now that you put yourself in this situation, just fold. Could be a combo-draw of course, but it definitely looks like two pair getting nervous.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, so you lean towards scenario 2. I'm trying to get an idea for the approximate ratio of the two scenarios.

[DJ Pattiecake]

lame hand dummy

[Rocco]

[ QUOTE ]

I like to mix-in big pair limps at a rate of about 8%. I use Harrington's watch rule: if the second hand on my wristwatch (which is not the exact time) is within 1st 5 secs, I limp. Unexploitable obviously.

Seems to me that people tend to play excessively tight in the 1st hour of the FTP $750K/$1M and big pairs have a lower avg expectation than later on. Limping is considerably below that avg expectation, obviously, but I think that doing it very occasionally adds the right kind of variance.


[/ QUOTE ]

Unexploitable, yes, but since your opponents normally don't pay enough attention, it's a waste. Focus more on maximizing value than trying to be unexploitable. Also, if you play tight from early positions and open-raise all hands you play, that's pretty much as unexploitable as it gets.

[jcm4ccc]

The psychology of this thread is more interesting than the hand. Balto posts a hand that he had to have known would engender some hostility, given how people feel about his other posts. Then he gets the hostility in spades. If anybody read this thread in isolation, they would think that you guys are a bunch of [censored].

[zizazziza]

[ QUOTE ]
The psychology of this thread is more interesting than the hand. Balto posts a hand that he had to have known would engender some hostility, given how people feel about his other posts. Then he gets the hostility in spades. If anybody read this thread in isolation, they would think that you guys are a bunch of [censored].

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe the reason why ppl are angry at taking this line is b/c if he just raised pf he probably wouldnt be in this situation where he has no idea where he is in the hand. And althought SOME ppl play tight in the 1st hr of the 750k/1mil, there are plenty of idiots that are ready to stack off like 400bb deep with TP in these mtts. If anything, I think that your reasoning is very passive(incorrect?) in the fact that you are trying to play small ball when there are lots of donkeys out there at the moment that are just looking to give their money away here. I mean if you raised pf and got a call from QJ/KQ/Qx, instead of being put in a tough turn situation, you could be closer to getting it ai and have a very easy decision. I mean you can even make a 5-6bb raise IMO from EP and get a caller in the 1st hour from someone who "doesnt believe you"

[betgo]

First of all, there is nothing wrong with the limp as such. I am not sure if it is the right play for Baltostar, since it makes things tricky postflop if you don't get raised, and there are also problems where an LRR may turn your hand face up, but if people just fold if they miss their set, you can make the same move without a big pair. There are also problems with open raising big hands in early position.

Obviously, I am a limper, and don't think it is necessary to flame people for not always raising in this spot.

When you play the hand 5-handed in a limped pot, there is a good chance someone caught something.

I am not sure I like the small bet on the turn. How would people play that?

When you get raised, villain could have 2-pair, a set, a draw, or top pair. I think this is a close decision.

I really think people are going overboard with the Baltostar abuse here. This is an interesting hand, regardless if Baltostar misplayed it. Also, the preflop and initial turn bets may be errors, but they are not huge errors.

I really think this is a reasonable HSMTT hand, and it is OK to have bad players post hands here. Baltostar has annoyed people with his strategy posts, but I don't see anything wrong with this post.

I also think that Baltostar is not the one who comes out looking like a jerk in this thread.

[Pudge714]

[ QUOTE ]
Balto,
Do you only lrr really good hands?

[/ QUOTE ]

[baltostar]

[ QUOTE ]
I believe the reason why ppl are angry at taking this line is b/c if he just raised pf he probably wouldnt be in this situation where he has no idea where he is in the hand. And althought SOME ppl play tight in the 1st hr of the 750k/1mil, there are plenty of idiots that are ready to stack off like 400bb deep with TP in these mtts. If anything, I think that your reasoning is very passive(incorrect?) in the fact that you are trying to play small ball when there are lots of donkeys out there at the moment that are just looking to give their money away here. I mean if you raised pf and got a call from QJ/KQ/Qx, instead of being put in a tough turn situation, you could be closer to getting it ai and have a very easy decision. I mean you can even make a 5-6bb raise IMO from EP and get a caller in the 1st hour from someone who "doesnt believe you"

[/ QUOTE ]

The guys who are looking to stack-off early are precisely why I think it's good to add this type of variance.

Sure, you can get a call raising in EP, but most likely you then just take down a small pot on the flop, or the turn.

Let's do some guesstimating assuming we're on the 1st hand of the tourney:

A reasonable expectation for an EP big pair might be just the blinds 60% of the time, a single caller 30% of the time, multiple callers 10% of the time. Single caller, you maybe get another 40% of the pot post-flop, on avg. Multiple callers, another 60%, on avg.

So, (.6 * 30) + (.3 * 170 * 1.4) + (.1 * 240 * 1.6) =

18 + 71.5 + 38.4 = 128

So an avg payoff is about 128/3000 = 4.3% of your stack, which is a good bread-and-butter small-ball payoff.

But by limping big pairs in EP in the 1st hour, you can stack people off pre-flop. It happens more than one would think. You get things like JJ re-raising TT and one of them pushes your 4-bet. I've also seen AK get it all in.

Used sparingly, this move has a great reward/risk ratio, taking the risk as a reasonable expectation for EP KK of about 6.5x BB.