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#1
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Re: Prop bet thread
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Im up for a prop bet involving taco bell. I bet X dollars that I can eat Y dollars worth of food. X and Y are up for negotiation. I set Y in the range of like $50 [/ QUOTE ] i'll bet up to $200 that you can't eat $50 worth of taco bell in one sitting [/ QUOTE ] I offered my friend this bet a McDonalds with my only condition being he couldn't buy the salads. He gave up after $25 worth of food because he said he had no chance to finish the bet. [/ QUOTE ] Can this be gamed with an exchange rate or by going to a superexpensive McDonalds such as one in London? |
#2
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Re: Prop bet thread
Assani - thanks for your input.
15 FT attempts a minute feels on the high side when you factor in small rest breaks or slow-downs over the half hour (I think he'd need to at points during the half hour). So let's say 13 and at 70% makes (I agree with you, my initial 80% is way too high, I could actually see due to fatigue it being less than 70%) it's around 273 made for the half-hour. At 60% level it's 234. I still feel pretty comfortable with an even money line of ~240 - I'll post results after it goes down, will be interesting to see how it turns out. -Al |
#3
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Re: Prop bet thread
Assani,
Good analysis, I suggested to Al that he PM you given your background. However, I too think your 15/minute is high, partly because there's only two balls and two people in play, so you could clank one here or there and not get them in your hand to maintain that average. That's a shot every four seconds. In my breakdown I thought a shot every 5-6 seconds was reasonable (so, 10-12/minute). Although the pre-shot routine will be tossed out the window, there is still the necessity to square and use proper technique. Between getting the ball and executing the shot and repeating this for 30 minutes, my guess is 15 shots/minute is simply not reasonable without negatively impacting the FT%. Also, I mentioned to Al that if it's the guy that was proposing it then to beware, he knows what he's doing. It reminds me of Nick Rainey and the racquet/throw tennis prop bet. |
#4
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Re: Prop bet thread
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Also, I mentioned to Al that if it's the guy that was proposing it then to beware, he knows what he's doing. [/ QUOTE ] That was my feeling as well, unless the guy is a total blowhard. 240 at even money sounds good to me, but I don't think Al is getting a huge edge or anything. |
#5
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Re: Prop bet thread
would like to see some discussion of a "how much can you urinate in one day" prop bet
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#6
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Re: Prop bet thread
[ QUOTE ]
Assani - thanks for your input. 15 FT attempts a minute feels on the high side when you factor in small rest breaks or slow-downs over the half hour (I think he'd need to at points during the half hour). So let's say 13 and at 70% makes (I agree with you, my initial 80% is way too high, I could actually see due to fatigue it being less than 70%) it's around 273 made for the half-hour. At 60% level it's 234. I still feel pretty comfortable with an even money line of ~240 - I'll post results after it goes down, will be interesting to see how it turns out. -Al [/ QUOTE ] <--- owned He ended up 375 for 475 (79%). Pretty sick performance, imo. His percentage and shot attempts actually peaked in the last 10 minutes (went 139 for 167 at 83%). Fatigue was absolutely not an issue. At each 10 minute mark he took about a 20 second break, then got right back into it. For the 30 minutes, this is roughly a shot every 4 seconds, or 16 attempts per minute. When he was in a rhythm, knocking them down, he'd get off a shot every 2-3 seconds. He never took a jump shot, always a traditional free throw, legs planted. Overall very efficient performance - luckily I hedged some of my bets and actually ended up... but I was way off in my initial estimate. Assani had a very good feel for this bet based on his comments above. Though I also think this guy is very above average, and 375 would be tough to get to for most players... -Al |
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