*** OFFICIAL 10/15/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (NYG @ ATL)***

[niss]

I think ATL is the wrong side here. I don't have my analysis with me but it favored the Giants rather strongly, and that was without considering that ATL's offensive line is in tatters and the Giants boast one of the better defensive lines in the league. It will be tough for ATL to run, leaving the game in the hands of Harrington, who has not been so good and does not have much mobility.

If I have time when I get home (before the game obviously), I'll see if I can post some of the analysis I have (no promises -- I have little kids and might not be able to hop on the computer until after the game has started).

I got on the Giants at 3.5 -- I am usually loath to lay more than a FG on the road -- but I think they cover that comfortably. I don't know that the Giants will put up a ton of points, but ATL may have difficulty putting points on the board. I probably will hop on the ATL under 20.5 if it is still there.

I heard someone say (somewhere else) that they liked ATL because this is a "trap" game for the Giants. I LOL'ed at that one. They have SF next week and MIA after that, so it's not like they are looking ahead to a big matchup. And they started 0-2, so perhaps they still have a sense of urgency that a 5-0 team would not have.

Here's to hoping I'm right.

[kaboshedx]

mediocre road team with an erratic QB laying 6 to a bad team, on MNF. I'll take the bad home team.

[Needle77]

I'm with you Niss. I'm on the Giants at -3.5 as well. Aaron Ross seemed to sit back in coverages much better last week than he had in previous games. If that defense plays at the level it has the past few weeks this could hurt ATL very much. Two undrafted free agents and a rookie on the OL just doesn't look like a recipe for success against a strong DL.

I'm also very weary of the whole Harrington/Leftwich situation. I'm not sure how Harrington can handle a situation where someone else is breathing down his neck. Sal Palantonio just reported that Harrington received 80% of the first team snaps.

[mogwai316]

Giants -5
Falcons under 20.5

Wish I had gotten an earlier line for the Giants, but I'm confident enough to take them at 5 here. Atlanta's offense is bad to begin with, they're starting an undrafted rookie at LT (as an Eagles fan I remember all too well what happened when our LT was out against NYG), they can't even replace Harrington if things go bad because Leftwich is hurt, plus they had drama this week between Crumpler/Petrino. Giants defense has improved greatly the last 3 weeks compared to the first 2. ATL is going to have a really hard time putting points on the board. All signs point to a blowout tonight, imo.

[iggymcfly]

Grrr. Should have waited longer before putting any offers up at Matchbook as the price has been moving significantly all day and all of these are now worse than market value. Still think they're pretty +EV though:

Atlanta +4.5 (Risk 1u to win 1.04u)
Atlanta +2.5 (1st half) (Risk 1u to win 1.12u)
Atlanta +216 (Risk 0.5u to win 1.06u)

[zOrO2k6]

I had this fk felling that Giants gonna win by exactly 3 points.

i love Atlanta ML +220, but i think im gonna take the points.

[The Real BigEasy]

I haven't heard much talk about the total. I'm thinking that under 43.5 is a good bet. I agree that ATL will have problems scoring, but I also think that their defense will ball up and play decent.

I think I like the under more than either side...thoughts?

[4Tay]

I usually would pass on this game. But the gamble in me wants a team to cheer for.

ATL +5 -102

[L.Washington]

[ QUOTE ]
I haven't heard much talk about the total. I'm thinking that under 43.5 is a good bet. I agree that ATL will have problems scoring, but I also think that their defense will ball up and play decent.

I think I like the under more than either side...thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm liking the under for a couple of units too. ATL is really going to struggle with that patchwork O-Line and I don't see them putting up enough to push this over. As for the Giants, Eli will throw a couple of stupid picks and the ATL D should be able to keep them out of the endzone. I'm leaning towards ATL +5, but I'm very confident in under 43.5.

[The Real BigEasy]

Good to know I'm not the only one thinking that way. I think the Giants will have to put up around 30+ to push it over. After watching the Bills ball up last Monday night at home it makes me sweat laying the 5, although I really think the G-men should cover...barring a Manning meltdown.