*** OFFICIAL 10/14/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***

[Nonfiction]

[ QUOTE ]
I really like STL and WAS to cover. I even like WAS money line.

Baltimore is on average outscored 19-17 per game and Frerotte put up 31 pts last week. I really can't imagine the ravens covering, and I'm even a Ravens fan.

I think GB will match up a lot like DET did last week vs WAS. all pass, no run, and I love the skins' secondary to shut down favre.

I think Minny to cover 5.5 vs Chi is also a solid pick. Barring a Hester DST score, this game will be super close.

I might throw down a tiny long shot parlay on Was, Ten, Miami all money line. Miami is weird, but without Green, I think Lemon will step up to earn the job. I think Jamal Lewis is out as well, but need confirmation.

I also like Jax and Phi to cover.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm on Washington for 2 units. Like you said, Washingtons secondary is great, and Green Bay is pretty much all pass.

I also agree with the Ravens not covering. Their offense will struggle to even put up 10 total, let alone cover by 10. I still think they win this game, but by a field goal.

I don't really like any other plays in the early games enough to bet on them. Might throw a unit on Tennessee a +3 but really undecided there.

[siccjay]

I don't know. I think I am feeling a fade the public and take the Ravens -10. The line could get better too of course right?

I see can see it easily being like 17-3 or a 20-6 type of game. I think it's a tarp!

[LogistX]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know. I think I am feeling a fade the public and take the Ravens -10. The line could get better too of course right?

I see can see it easily being like 17-3 or a 20-6 type of game. I think it's a tarp!

[/ QUOTE ]

This line made my gambol-sense tingle. Baltimore's offense has been unbelievably pathetic in the last 2 games. However, in the first 3 games of the season they put up 20 pts each game and they're still 11th in total offense. Also, the only decent defense that St. Louis went up against (Bucs) held them well. STL+9.5/10 may not be as good as it first appears. Also, wagerline shows more people taking the points.

[psuasskicker]

[ QUOTE ]
However, in the first 3 games of the season they put up 20 pts each game and they're still 11th in total offense.

[/ QUOTE ]

They're also one of the worst teams on converting red zone attempts into TDs, and they give up too much through the air. NYJ, AZ, and SF kept it close; a bad Cinci team got their only win; and Clev blew them out.

This Ravens team is not good. I'm a Ravens ultra-super-mega-fanboi, and right now I think an 8-8 finish would be overachieving.

- C -

[ensign_lee]

SageStats ensign_lee

YTD: 15-17-2
Units Won: -4.46

~~~
Had a nice week last week, but it still wasn't enough to get me back to the black. wow. hah. Well, at least it took away the sting of the Red River Shootout. It definitely felt nice having a winning week, though, weeh!

Well, on to this week. Let's hope this week performs as well as last week!

~~~
Minnesota Vikings Moneyline (+195)
4 units at BetTrojan

Again, this is a bet against a QB that I don't have as much faith in as everyone else seems to. I think Minnesota wins this game half the time, at least. Getting around +200 is fantastic. GO GO VIKINGS.

Tennessee Titans Moneyline (+120)
2 units at JustBet

The AFC South has lost one game outside its division. ONE. All the rest of the losses have come against each other. And now we have an AFC South Team going and playing an NFC South team. As much as I hate the Titans, I think that they can take care of business here. Add in the fact that Pinny has been making it relatively unattractive to place any bets on Tennessee and this goes from a one unit bet to a two unit bet. GO GO AFC SOUTH.

St. Louis Rams +10 (-110)
2 units at Skybook

Took this when I saw the Pinny lean on +9.5 at -110. Yay Skybook free half point onto somewhat key numbers! Honestly, I'm a little iffy on this bet, but hey...if Pinny is willing to take it, so am I. That, and since I no longer have the ability to sell points, I can't scalp this out. Dang.

Houston Texans +6.5 (-105)
1 unit at BetTrojan

Why does everyone always conveniently forget that the Texans hate the Jaguars and usually play them well? Not to mention that the Texans regain two important players in the offense this week: starting RB Ahman Green, and good rookie WR/PR Jacoby Jones. Jacoby's impact on the special teams and on the team's psyche is ridiculous.

I am worried about the Texans running game, seeing the offensive line struggle so much after the loss of starting C Steve McKinney and the fall of Ahman Green, but hopefully, with Green re-entering the lineup this week, that will be alleviated somewhat. GO TEXANS.

3 team 6 point teaser (+180)
HOU +12.5
MIN +11
TEN +9
3 units at BetTrojan

~~~
Allrighty, do what you need to do. I could easily revert back to my losing form at the beginning of this season.

Well, if you want to see how I've been doing, here's a little info:

~~~
Wager Size
1 unit plays: 5-6-2 +0.07
2 unit plays: 7-7 +0.51
3 unit plays: 2-3 -3.14
5 unit plays: 0-1 -5.5

Bet Type:
Point Spread: 5-9-1 -12.73
Moneylines: 3-7 -5.28
Totals: 6-1-1 +9.95


GO GO TEXANS!

[NajdorfDefense]

I put a bunch on PHL-3 earlier in the week in hopes that Westbrook and Thomas [and maybe LJ and Sheppard would be back] the first two are back, line is now 3.5 obvs but I still like PHL even on the road here, healthier and with the week off Reid's boys have been pretty unstoppable.

In short, I think Jets are just that bad. I guess we'll see.

[dankhank]

i like all the home dogs this week. not only is it a good subset in general, but today each dog is potentially underrated, while their road opponents are all perpetually overrated.

[zOrO2k6]

Early Week 6 Picks:

CIN Bengals @ KC Chiefs +3
HOU Texans +6.5 @ JAC Jaguars
MIA Dolphins @ CLE Browns -4
MIN Vikings +4.5 @ CHI Bears
PHI Eagles -4 @ NY Jets
STL Rams @ BAL Ravens -9
TEN Titans +3 @ TB Buccs
WAS Redskins @ GB Packers -3

1u each pick.

[Vagos]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't really like any other plays in the early games enough to bet on them. Might throw a unit on Tennessee a +3 but really undecided there.

[/ QUOTE ]

I put a bet on Titans ML(+130). Titans are for real, A LOT of size up front on defense and the Bucs ground game is in shambles. Garcia can be mistake free but he can't exactly air it out and run a one-dimensional offense. And the Titans secondary is no slouch either.

Also like the Vikings +5.5. Bears had a +4 takeaway ratio against Green Bay and they just barely squeeked by. This team still gave up 34 points to Detroit in the 4th quarter. And they're still banged up on defense. Vikings D is superb against the run and Cedric Benson has been nothing short of attrocious this season.

[Nonfiction]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't really like any other plays in the early games enough to bet on them. Might throw a unit on Tennessee a +3 but really undecided there.

[/ QUOTE ]

I put a bet on Titans ML(+130). Titans are for real, A LOT of size up front on defense and the Bucs ground game is in shambles. Garcia can be mistake free but he can't exactly air it out and run a one-dimensional offense. And the Titans secondary is no slouch either.

Also like the Vikings +5.5. Bears had a +4 takeaway ratio against Green Bay and they just barely squeeked by. This team still gave up 34 points to Detroit in the 4th quarter. And they're still banged up on defense. Vikings D is superb against the run and Cedric Benson has been nothing short of attrocious this season.

[/ QUOTE ]
Thoughts on the under for either or both game? Chicagos offense is awful, Vikings have a solid defense, and Vikings are starting the worst QB in the NFL (holcomb isnt starting right?). Don't see this being too high scoring.