Elezra vs. Baxter HSP...Huh?

[Greg (FossilMan)]

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in most cases running it once v running it twice is a varience thing, not an EV one. However, in this case running it twice clearly makes baxter money and loses elezra money. Since Eli only has one out, if they ran it twice eli could only win 1/2 the pot at most.

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This is incorrect. The EV is identical no matter how many times you run it, and no matter what two hands are involved. Here, it is clear he can't win it twice with the underset, but his chances of winning it once don't merely double, they slightly more than double. If they run it once, he has 1 chance in 44 of hitting (if there is only one card to come), but if they run it twice, he has 1 in 44 the first time, and when that misses, he has 1 in 43 the second time, which adds up to more than 2 in 44. Thus, when you do the detailed math, the EV is always the same.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[MLG]

greg,
obviously you're right. i say obviously because i just actually did the math out.

edit: and it should be obvious so i dont know why i brain farted. the ev you lose from lack of replacement when you hit is always going to be equal to the ev you gain from it when you miss.

[Rushmore]

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[ QUOTE ]
in most cases running it once v running it twice is a varience thing, not an EV one. However, in this case running it twice clearly makes baxter money and loses elezra money. Since Eli only has one out, if they ran it twice eli could only win 1/2 the pot at most.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is incorrect. The EV is identical no matter how many times you run it, and no matter what two hands are involved. Here, it is clear he can't win it twice with the underset, but his chances of winning it once don't merely double, they slightly more than double. If they run it once, he has 1 chance in 44 of hitting (if there is only one card to come), but if they run it twice, he has 1 in 44 the first time, and when that misses, he has 1 in 43 the second time, which adds up to more than 2 in 44. Thus, when you do the detailed math, the EV is always the same.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[/ QUOTE ]

Please note that I made this point several times in the thread, to the general derision of several of the forum denizens.

It seems to me to be clearly a question of variance. I would assume (perhaps erroneously) that as such a huge dog, a decent player would almost always opt for any increased likelihood of escaping the noose.

But this is the point that I have come to question as the thread wears on, what with all of the condescension and general incredulity in the responses to my OP.

[FoldALot.]

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I would assume (perhaps erroneously) that as such a huge dog, a decent player would almost always opt for any increased likelihood of escaping the noose.

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After watching all of HSP it seems that the players generally do not run it twice when they are a huge dog with one or two outs. I guess it's just an unwritten rule. You are supposed to accept that you got outplayed/shi.t on by the poker gods and not desperately try to avoid losing your money. If the miracle card comes then so be it.