#11
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Another Math Question (NHL Grand Salami)
[ QUOTE ]
Thremp, The Poisson distribution can be derived as a limiting case of the binomial distribution. [/ QUOTE ] Engrish. I scammed my way out of my stats classes for my finance/econ degree and faked the rest. I suggested Poisson since there are dozens of free calcs on the net. And also it seems to make sense. Note: Work on stats stuff soon. |
#12
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Another Math Question (NHL Grand Salami)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Thremp, The Poisson distribution can be derived as a limiting case of the binomial distribution. [/ QUOTE ] Engrish. I scammed my way out of my stats classes for my finance/econ degree and faked the rest. I suggested Poisson since there are dozens of free calcs on the net. And also it seems to make sense. Note: Work on stats stuff soon. [/ QUOTE ] The Poisson distribution becomes a good approximation of the binomial distribution as your sample size increases. |
#13
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Another Math Question (NHL Grand Salami)
[ QUOTE ]
Note: Work on stats stuff soon. [/ QUOTE ] Ditto. Luckily I'm taking a Probability Theory class right now. I just checked my book, and we should cover both Poisson and Binomial Distribution within the next week or two. |
#14
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Another Math Question (NHL Grand Salami)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Thremp, The Poisson distribution can be derived as a limiting case of the binomial distribution. [/ QUOTE ] Engrish. I scammed my way out of my stats classes for my finance/econ degree and faked the rest. I suggested Poisson since there are dozens of free calcs on the net. And also it seems to make sense. Note: Work on stats stuff soon. [/ QUOTE ] The Poisson distribution becomes a good approximation of the binomial distribution as your sample size increases. [/ QUOTE ] Like This, Like This, Like This, Like This, Baby Do You Want It Like This. |
#15
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Another Math Question (NHL Grand Salami)
I'm trying to figure out the easiest way to calculate grand salami odds based on each individual game's odds, but I'm not a combinatorics genius so it's going to take some time.
That said, 5.9% seems way too high, but I've got no data to prove or disprove this. |
#16
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Another Math Question (NHL Grand Salami)
6% chance of 45 goals seems high.
|
#17
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Another Math Question (NHL Grand Salami)
[ QUOTE ]
I'm trying to figure out the easiest way to calculate grand salami odds based on each individual game's odds, but I'm not a combinatorics genius so it's going to take some time. [/ QUOTE ] this could be done with about a days work on a spreadsheet |
#18
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Another Math Question (NHL Grand Salami)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'm trying to figure out the easiest way to calculate grand salami odds based on each individual game's odds, but I'm not a combinatorics genius so it's going to take some time. [/ QUOTE ] this could be done with about a days work on a spreadsheet [/ QUOTE ] A quick iterative solution came to me while sitting in Calc III class, so I can code it up now. lol [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] |
#19
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Another Math Question (NHL Grand Salami)
CDS last nite, Calc 3 tonite, what's tomorrow - Unified Field Theory or Superstrings?
|
#20
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Another Math Question (NHL Grand Salami)
[ QUOTE ]
Holy Sh*t! Can someone check this? Using the 5.9197% chance of a push, and assuming Pinny's line is efficient: <ul type="square">[*]Chance of 46 or More = 110 / 210 = 52.38%[*]Chance of Exactly 45 = 5.9197%[*]Chance of 44 or Less = 1 - (.5238 + .059197) = 41.70%[*]True Line on over 45 = -126[*]Betting on a -110 line, the optimum full kelly stake = 6.93% of bankroll, and expected ROI = 6.3%[/list]Is this right? [/ QUOTE ] Poisson is a good start, but I've created databases for several sports and have found that the standard deviation on these things tend to be a bit higher than what the Poisson/Binomial distribution gives you. In other words, take the number that Excel poops out and multiply it by about .8, and you'll be a bit closer to the actual push percentage (for 45). Since there will be more "spread-outness" in the numbers, the advantage for 46 or more will decrease as well. |
|
|