Daliman's Wong teasers, Season Deux: Week 4

[Art Vandelay]

What a week to pick for your first plunge into Wongland. These things are like crack. I just need to make sure I start betting sooner than 15 min before kickoff, I missed all of the 3 team RRs and didn't get ATL included on my card because I'm a retard at reading. I can't wait until I get a week where 75% of the bankroll is riding on these badboys.

GOGOGOGOGOGOGO NE, I can still salvage the week and go 6-4 on my 2 teamers.

[Limpfold]

People doing these should really read TomCowley's post linked in the WongFAQ about betsizing and what to rr...
I get the impression a lot do totally opposite of that.

[Zoelef]

[ QUOTE ]
Trent Dilfer is the worst quarterback in the history of football.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ahem.

[Limpfold]

Ok, so I'm well aware of in most cases why you shouldn't hedge.
Thing is when doing these teasers and you have one leg left like NE today when I calculate my EV it shows I should go for the middle.
Now the method I use might of course be bad so maybe I could get an opinion from someone more skilled in maths.

First I estimate NE's chance of winning with Pinnys moneyline, that should be ~75%.
Then I use the charts from smartcapper and get % for the 3 possible outcomes, ie CIN wins or loses by 1, NE wins with 9 or more, NE wins with 2-8.
The numbers I get is

CIN +1 = 28%
NE -9 = 33.5%
NE wins with 2 to 8 = 38.5%

Do these numbers look somewhat accurate?

Using them it's not even close EV wise, I compared letting it ride, hedging/middling 50% of my risk, hedging 100%.
It is clearly inferior to let it ride.

Of course the smartcapper charts don't take into account specifics and that the game is predicted to be highscoring etc.
Would appreciate helpful input, thanks.

[TomCowley]

What are you calculating, exactly? Your percentages seem reasonable, but I'm not sure what you're doing with them. You have teasers with 1 leg left that are way +EV after winning the other legs. That's good.

Unless you're doing a complicated Kelly calculation for bankroll growth (where hedging some percentage of the profit by taking the Cin ML @ -EV might be correct), you shouldn't make another bet unless you think that bet is +EV by itself. The EV of any bet you make on the game now (and therefore your total EV of the teasers and any bet you make now) can't depend on the fact that you already have other bets on the game.

If you are hedging for purely kelly purposes, ignore the last paragraph and post math for review.

[Limpfold]

To put it short, I have a bet 980 to win 980 at the line New England -2.
I can hedge/middle with the line CIN +8.5 +100 (actually +105 now).
My EV of letting the bet ride is 431.2, my EV of betting 980 on CIN +8.5 100 is tons more, it breaks even if the chance of hitting the middle is 22%.
I suspect my numbers is a bit off though cos if they are accurate there should be tons of value in CIN +8.5.

[Thremp]

You EV should go down with a hedge while median bankroll likely goes up. This is why you hedge for optimal bankroll growth not for increased EV. That is a basic error you are making.

[Limpfold]

All terminology aside - it seems to be that I make more money in the long run by betting CIN? I understand the size of that bet is made with optimal bankroll growth in mind but then again you need to have a good idea about your edge.
In any case even if I don't bet the optimal amount, every dollar I put on CIN +8.5 up to and possibly above 980 is better than to let the wager stand as it is.

[TomG]

You found a great price. Cin +8.5 currently priced around -119 at Pinny, so Cin +8.5 +105 is a +EV bet by itself. Bet it because it's +EV. And yes, it also happens to be a bet that hedges your teaser.

[Limpfold]

Actually I got it at +110, much love for SIA.