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#1
10-01-2007, 11:31 PM
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Re: When would you fold AA\'s
I thought about this overnight. If I was at a table of a major tournament and the bubble was upon us. The chip leader went all in and I had pocket aces. I was for sure making the money and needed it, I would fold the aces because they are not 100%. If I did not need the money obviously I would call. Imagine AA versus KK and trips hit KK when you needed the money, you would ask this question why did I even look at my cards.
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#2
10-01-2007, 07:51 AM
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Re: When would you fold AA\'s
This is a bankroll management question. It is hard to give a consistent answer to the collection of questions of this type unless you use mathematics. An example of a mathematical approach is to use the Kelly criterion, which says to maximize the expected logarithm of your bankroll. That says when you win 82% of decisive hands, you are better off not betting if you would have to bet over 95.2% ~ 20/21 of your bankroll.
Someone following the Kelly criterion for bankroll management, who has $10k at home, should be willing to risk up to about $200,800, so should try to double up 8 times to $256,000 and then quit. This wins $255,000 about 0.82^8 ~ 20% of the time, and loses $1,000 about 80% of the time. Having a larger bankroll would mean the player would risk more. Following a more conservative rule than the Kelly criterion means the player should tend to risk less.
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#3
10-02-2007, 04:42 PM
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Re: When would you fold AA\'s
[ QUOTE ]
This is a bankroll management question. It is hard to give a consistent answer to the collection of questions of this type unless you use mathematics. An example of a mathematical approach is to use the Kelly criterion, which says to maximize the expected logarithm of your bankroll. That says when you win 82% of decisive hands, you are better off not betting if you would have to bet over 95.2% ~ 20/21 of your bankroll. Someone following the Kelly criterion for bankroll management, who has $10k at home, should be willing to risk up to about $200,800, so should try to double up 8 times to $256,000 and then quit. This wins $255,000 about 0.82^8 ~ 20% of the time, and loses $1,000 about 80% of the time. Having a larger bankroll would mean the player would risk more. Following a more conservative rule than the Kelly criterion means the player should tend to risk less. [/ QUOTE ] Pzhon , correct me if I'm wrong here but if you're getting 1:1 on your wager and that p=0.82 , then you should be willing to bet up to 64% of your bankroll . f*=(0.82*2-1)/1 =0.64 So if you have 10k , aside from the 1k , then you should be willing to double up to 32000 and then stop . This makes sense , since 16000/(16000+10000)~61.5% , Which means you should give it one last try and try to double up to 32000 and then stop .
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#4
10-02-2007, 05:09 PM
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Re: When would you fold AA\'s
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] An example of a mathematical approach is to use the Kelly criterion, which says to maximize the expected logarithm of your bankroll. That says when you win 82% of decisive hands, you are better off not betting if you would have to bet over 95.2% ~ 20/21 of your bankroll. Having a larger bankroll would mean the player would risk more. Following a more conservative rule than the Kelly criterion means the player should tend to risk less. [/ QUOTE ] Pzhon , correct me if I'm wrong here but if you're getting 1:1 on your wager and that p=0.82 , then you should be willing to bet up to 64% of your bankroll . [/ QUOTE ] No, that is incorrect. The Kelly criterion says you should be happiest if you can rescale the wager to about 64% of your bankroll, but you should prefer much higher wagers over walking away. Maybe you should give me a little bit more credit, given our track records, or check what I said with a calculation of the expected logarithm before trying to correct yet another correct statement of mine.
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#5
10-02-2007, 05:18 PM
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Re: When would you fold AA\'s
I am giving you a little more credit and I wasn't doubting you at all .
This is why I was willing to ask you because I think you' re probably one of the more knowledgeable posters regarding the Kelly criterion and such . I was also willing to take the time to learn something new that I wasn't aware of . In any case , even though we butt heads in the past , I have a huge amount of respect for what you've contributed here .
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#6
10-02-2007, 10:44 PM
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Re: When would you fold AA\'s
[ QUOTE ]
I am giving you a little more credit and I wasn't doubting you at all . [/ QUOTE ] That didn't stop you from contradicting me in two posts here instead of checking which of us was right with a simple expected utility calculation. [ QUOTE ] This is why I was willing to ask you because I think you're probably one of the more knowledgeable posters regarding the Kelly criterion and such . I was also willing to take the time to learn something new that I wasn't aware of . In any case , even though we butt heads in the past , I have a huge amount of respect for what you've contributed here . [/ QUOTE ] If so, you have had an obnoxious way to express that respect, such as by declaring, "Clearly my intuition was better than yours... I lost all respect for you... I think of you as a poor man's version of BruceZ," by going out of your way to nitpick on statements of mine (that were correct), failing to acknowledge real corrections I have made to your posts, etc. You have made me sorely regret the many times I have helped you. I still have no idea what your problem is.
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#7
10-01-2007, 10:24 AM
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Re: When would you fold AA\'s
There are rare tournament situations where it is +EV to fold AA preflop. But they are very unusual.
Otherwise, it is +EV to get all the money in as an 80% favorite. So, get the money in every time. Bankroll management is a separate issue, and what you are really getting at is BR management and risk of ruin questions. But, as to the hand in question, in a cash game you always get the money in the middle here. I suppose if the other player said, "I'm all in with kings, and if you win I'll double you up, but if you lose I'll shoot you in the face." And then he pulled out a loaded gun and pointed it at me, then I'd probably fold. But I'd have to ask the dealer for time to consider my options first.
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#10
10-01-2007, 12:05 PM
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Re: When would you fold AA\'s
[ QUOTE ]
I cant believe I got such a wide variety of answers [/ QUOTE ] You should have been able to predict it. You would also get widely varying answers if you asked, "How large is your bankroll?"
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