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#1
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Sorry, I was a bit cursory earlier. Your aces would be good perhaps half of the time, so allow 1 or 2 outs for that.
It's likely that a couple of the flush outs are dirty (Ks certainly is). So I would count it as, say, 11 clean outs here. I seriously doubt you have the best hand on the flop given the number of callers. So, I would still play this as fast as poss. |
#2
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[ QUOTE ]
Sorry, I was a bit cursory earlier. Your aces would be good perhaps half of the time, so allow 1 or 2 outs for that. It's likely that a couple of the flush outs are dirty (Ks certainly is). So I would count it as, say, 11 clean outs here. I seriously doubt you have the best hand on the flop given the number of callers. So, I would still play this as fast as poss. [/ QUOTE ] Fair enough. But I think you're a bit pessimistic about the flush outs. The Ks is possibly no good (but is still good against a lot of possible villain holdings such as aces, AK, etc) - but how exactly can any other spade not be good? Any other spade apart from the K gives me the absolute nuts. So giving me 1 or 2 outs for my aces, that makes 12 or 13 outs on the flop. I take your point about the number of callers, but raising to $10.50 is hardly playing it slow |
#3
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Calling a raise with AQs against a quite tight player isnt something I do, but knowing how tight would give me a little more to comment on. If he plays straight forward, I might call. You do have position, but there are still others to act.
As played, if you are raising the flop, then make it bigger. You are committing so will get it all in if someone pops you. At first, i wondered if calling would be ok giving the flop checkers a chance to come in as well. Anyone have thoughts on that? Too nitty? I put a range of hands for 2 villains on Pokerstove. Hero would be ahead of this somewhat loose range. equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 41.422% 41.03% 00.40% 477900 4617.00 { AsQs } Hand 1: 29.289% 27.10% 02.19% 315678 25498.50 { KK, TT, 66, AKs, KQs, QJs, 9s8s, 8s7s, AKo, KQo, QJo } Hand 2: 29.289% 27.10% 02.19% 315678 25498.50 { KK, TT, 66, AKs, KQs, QJs, 9s8s, 8s7s, AKo, KQo, QJo } Against a tighter range, here are the results. equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 32.463% 32.17% 00.30% 70586 648.00 { AsQs } Hand 1: 15.130% 14.83% 00.30% 32552 648.00 { KK, TT, 66, AKs, QJs, 9s8s, 8s7s, AKo, QJo } Hand 2: 52.406% 52.41% 00.00% 114995 0.00 { KK, TT, 66 } Even against the tighter range, it looks like we are getting the correct odds to get it all in here given the money already in the pot. |
#4
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The board pairing would be bad for you. I was thinking about a running pair on turn and river or something like that. But, I too take your point, perhaps I am painting it too black.
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#5
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I think this is a fold preflop as others have alluded.
I could see just calling here on the flop given your read. It depends how loose they really are. The point being that you don't have as much fold equity against a loose opponent, but you have good implied odds. If you want to raise the flop then I like a push better. A push to 30 isn't even a 1.5x raise so I think the risk-reward ratio is good. |
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