Jermain Taylor vs. Kell Pavlik 9-29

[Tragichero]

Sometimes with fighters who have yet to fight somebody well known it isn't always about Who they've beat, but it's about How they've beat them. I think this should be taken into account as well in regards to Pavlik. As a boxing fan I feel this is a great match-up and I'm glad it's not on PPV. I know I said I'm picking Taylor by KO, but I wouldn't be surprised if Pavlik wins by KO, while I'm putting a unit or two on Taylor at 3 to 1, I will also be enjoying the fight for what it is.

[Oliver Nipples]

I also looked to start a thread wondering if Pavlik is a steal at +116. I'm not arguing either side here, just love Kelly at +116 from a betting perspective. From a fan perspective I am looking forward to this, as this will deliver what Hatton/Mayweather won't.

Quick fact: No Steward trained fighter has lost after going to Emmanuel's camp in the Poconos to train, where Taylor trained for this. (17-0)

[Tragichero]

The other fight on this card should be interesting as well. Andre Berto vs. David Estrada. David Estrada is a very exciting fighter of the arturo Gatti mold. His fight with Kermit Cintron was amazing last year. Berto is a former olympian who has had very little trouble in the pro ranks so far, but he was dropped by Cosme Rivera fairly hard in his last fight. There are two ways to look at that. He got dropped by an 11 loss fighter, there are some flaws. Or, he survived his first real challenge with passing colors. I like to think the latter. You can get Estrada at almost 3 to 1, so might be a play. But Estrada, at 28, has been in a lot of tough fights, and a smooth boxer such as Berto will probably give him trouble.

[Tuds75]

[ QUOTE ]
The other fight on this card should be interesting as well. Andre Berto vs. David Estrada. David Estrada is a very exciting fighter of the arturo Gatti mold. His fight with Kermit Cintron was amazing last year. Berto is a former olympian who has had very little trouble in the pro ranks so far, but he was dropped by Cosme Rivera fairly hard in his last fight. There are two ways to look at that. He got dropped by an 11 loss fighter, there are some flaws. Or, he survived his first real challenge with passing colors. I like to think the latter. You can get Estrada at almost 3 to 1, so might be a play. But Estrada, at 28, has been in a lot of tough fights, and a smooth boxer such as Berto will probably give him trouble.

[/ QUOTE ]

Estrada at 3-1 is a nice price. Estrada went all 10 rounds with Shane Mosely. Mosley might not be the biggest puncher, but he can do some damage. Estrada also went 10 hard rounds with Cintron. Berto is starting to face some real competition in his last few bouts. Before the Cosme Rivera fight, Berto last 2 opponets had a combined 26 losses and one of those guys had a losing record. If you go back even further to about only a year ago Berto was fought 3 guys with a combined 60 loses. I am not saying Berto is going to lose, but he looks like a master blaster in the ring, but a lot like Darchinayan and Rocky Juarvez, Berto could be another young fighter who gets built up to fast in the odds makers eyes so their odds are way overpriced, even thought they have yet to prove they are truly an elite level fighter.

Tuds

[dankhank]

SIA has taylor at -111 on a 3-way line, and pinny has a draw at +1800. approximately what is SIA's taylor line converted to a 2-way?

[dankhank]

[ QUOTE ]
SIA has taylor at -111 on a 3-way line, and pinny has a draw at +1800. approximately what is SIA's taylor line converted to a 2-way?

[/ QUOTE ]

-111 is 52.6%, +1800 is 5.25%... so would you add 5.25% to 52.6, to get a line of -137 and probability of 57.85%?

[trixtrix]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
SIA has taylor at -111 on a 3-way line, and pinny has a draw at +1800. approximately what is SIA's taylor line converted to a 2-way?

[/ QUOTE ]

-111 is 52.6%, +1800 is 5.25%... so would you add 5.25% to 52.6, to get a line of -137 and probability of 57.85%?

[/ QUOTE ]

your money is refunded on the draw, so essentially the fair line is 52.6+ draw%/2

[NajdorfDefense]

I like Estrada at a good price as well.

Aaron Pryor jr's dad was a stone-cold pimp. Gotta rewatch those Pryor v Arguello matches again, they were absolute wars.

[darko3131]

[ QUOTE ]
Quick fact: No Steward trained fighter has lost after going to Emmanuel's camp in the Poconos to train, where Taylor trained for this. (17-0)

[/ QUOTE ]

Really that is a pretty cool stat. I was there last week Emmanuel Steward and about 20 fighters from Knonk were there as well. It was cool because the summer is over so the place was deserted. It was literally my family, 2 others and all the boxers. So we basically ran into Jermain and the others everywhere- gym, dinner, pool etc.

Everyone was pretty chill, the workouts were open to the public so we went down for a few hours and stood next to the ring watching them spar, jump rope and hit the bags. Jermain Taylor autographed the beater he worked out in the last day and gave it to me. Andy Lee, Kermit Cintron, James Cintron, Jon Banks, and Aaron Pryor Jr. were the other auto's I got.

For what it is worth it didn't seem like Jermain was the one preparing for a huge fight this weekend. I only watched them train about 1-2 hours per day so its possible I just missed Jermain with his game face on, but he seemed to be goofing around some while a guy like Andy Lee was being a workout warrior. I'm just staying away from betting this fight now. I was on board for Pavlik but now after meeting him I can't root against Jermain. Great matchup that I don't mind watching as a fan and not having money at risk.

[Carlson411]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Quick fact: No Steward trained fighter has lost after going to Emmanuel's camp in the Poconos to train, where Taylor trained for this. (17-0)

[/ QUOTE ]

Really that is a pretty cool stat. I was there last week Emmanuel Steward and about 20 fighters from Knonk were there as well. It was cool because the summer is over so the place was deserted. It was literally my family, 2 others and all the boxers. So we basically ran into Jermain and the others everywhere- gym, dinner, pool etc.

Everyone was pretty chill, the workouts were open to the public so we went down for a few hours and stood next to the ring watching them spar, jump rope and hit the bags. Jermain Taylor autographed the beater he worked out in the last day and gave it to me. Andy Lee, Kermit Cintron, James Cintron, Jon Banks, and Aaron Pryor Jr. were the other auto's I got.

For what it is worth it didn't seem like Jermain was the one preparing for a huge fight this weekend. I only watched them train about 1-2 hours per day so its possible I just missed Jermain with his game face on, but he seemed to be goofing around some while a guy like Andy Lee was being a workout warrior. I'm just staying away from betting this fight now. I was on board for Pavlik but now after meeting him I can't root against Jermain. Great matchup that I don't mind watching as a fan and not having money at risk.

[/ QUOTE ] This is very interesting. Great post. I'm leaning towards decreasing my bet or not betting at all. Berto will also be facing a tough competitor as well. I may not bet all.