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#13
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The one thing, that I think is being omitted from this discussion is the fact that this hand is basically big stack poker.
I agree that the proper turn in retrospect was to push the turn, knowing what I know now, but look back at the situation. I think its actually a toss up between push/check behind Pot = $90 Button has $11 left SB has $66 left. SB Checks, I push for $66. What have you got? 1.) Pot would equal $156. 2.) Button would be getting approx 15-1 on his money for a call, so he's in. Pot is now $167 3.) Back to SB with $66 behind. He's getting approx 2.5 - 1 to call there. With all the draws on that board, plus the fact that it is NL50 and people do play sets & 2pair disgustingly, chances are good that I'm going to showdown with at BEST a 30% chance, but more likely some outs are discounted and probably only a 25% chance of actually winning the hand. Throw in the fold equity there and it probably even between the two possibilities. In reality I only had 6 outs, or a 12% chance. I think its close either way when looking at the odds that were available to calculate at the time of the decision. |
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