Big fold with top pair and nfd

[FGators]

This isn't the guy to raise the flop against. There is likely zero FE as well, we know his description.

I probably end up calling the turn here because I'm in love with my hand but yeah, its really not that strong when you are up against a set.

[Nielsio]

I was sweating my cousin and told her to 3-barrel-bluff all the two plus two donks, because nits always have the goods ldo.

[SilentNoise]

BB's lead into the field on that board looks pretty strong.

[ QUOTE ]
i'd call because of how you played flop and since A is a good bluff card for villain

[/ QUOTE ]

Jay said that BB was a nit. What hand is BB going to lead out into the field on this drawy board, that is then helped by the turn? Mayyyybe A9? Is it a nit calling preflop with that? I guess if its suited, with the few callers before him.

BB must be well aware of his image at the table. He cant expect Jay to put him on any hand that is helped by the A except A9s imo.

At the same time you dont really wanna stack off with just an Ace here. I dont think he is ever betting the turn AND betting the river as a bluff. I dont like calling turn AND calling river for this reason.

I think its safe to say that BB will give up on a blank river if you call the turn (if hes bluffing with some other combo draw or something, or a hand like TT/(JJ?) ).

So call turn/fold river.
Call turn value bet river if checked to (with just the ace)
and obv get the money in if you hit the nuts


edit: since SB is a random donk, im not too worried about him having a set. if it was some other nit who only calls from the blinds with small pairs, then i like the immediate fold on the turn since a turn c/r looks inevitable. since hes a donk hes probably got like 9T or something.

[zaxx19]

I dont play SSNLH anymore but you dont think you could get him to crying call 100 bucks on the river if one of your out hits?

I mean thats assuming there is a 0% chance he has a non Ace holding.

If thats true, if he is simply that tight why not steal that pot on the flop with a huge raise or push?

[Jay Riall]

Trouble is I only make the nuts 16% of the time, and hes not very likely to put much money in the pot when I do one of these outs. If I hit an Ace or 3 and he pushes I hate calling because we are up against a set soooo often there.

[Mat Cauthon]

Since there are a lot of good arguments here for both sides and still no conclusion, I decided to make some calculations. Hopefully they will help a little.

If he always has a set and pays off when we hit, and SB always folds:

We miss
-$66*36/44 = -$54

We hit
$259*8/44 = $47

Then we lose $8.


He might also have combo-draws. T8, T7, 87, 75, 54, Q9, J9, T9, 98, 97; 10 combinations. The sets are 9 combinations.
He doesn't play all of them like this preflop, flop and turn. Lets take the 2 most probable ones, T9 and 98, and say he plays them like this. Lets also assume he never bluffs them, and stacks off on any heart.

We miss
-$66*36/44 = -$54
-$54*9/11 = -$44

We hit
$259*8/44 = $47
$47*9/11 = $38.5

He hits
-$66*5/44 = -$7.5
-$7.5*2/11 = -$1.4

Both miss
$151*32/44 = $109.8
$109.8*2/11 = $20

Both hits
$259*7/44 = $41.2
$41.2*2/11 = $7.5

$38.5+$20+$7.5-$44-$1.4 = $20.6

In that case we win $20

Using the same calculations, and asuming he only plays T9 like this, nets us $8.


Using all of the calculations above and assuming he folds his set when we hit, our net is -$27.5 $4.5 -$9.5 respectively. And if he folds it half of the time: -$18 $12.5 -$1.


I don't think he can fold a set very often, and I think he plays some of his combo-draws like this, so I think it's a call. But sitting at the table, I could have a different/better read, and it could very well be a fold.
If you think it's really close, you might want to fold, since it's a high variance play.

[McBeef]

if bb was neilso id fold too

[tufat23]

[ QUOTE ]
Since there are a lot of good arguments here for both sides and still no conclusion, I decided to make some calculations. Hopefully they will help a little.

If he always has a set and pays off when we hit, and SB always folds:

We miss
-$66*36/44 = -$54

We hit
$259*8/44 = $47

Then we lose $8.


He might also have combo-draws. T8, T7, 87, 75, 54, Q9, J9, T9, 98, 97; 10 combinations. The sets are 9 combinations.
He doesn't play all of them like this preflop, flop and turn. Lets take the 2 most probable ones, T9 and 98, and say he plays them like this. Lets also assume he never bluffs them, and stacks off on any heart.

We miss
-$66*36/44 = -$54
-$54*9/11 = -$44

We hit
$259*8/44 = $47
$47*9/11 = $38.5

He hits
-$66*5/44 = -$7.5
-$7.5*2/11 = -$1.4

Both miss
$151*32/44 = $109.8
$109.8*2/11 = $20

Both hits
$259*7/44 = $41.2
$41.2*2/11 = $7.5

$38.5+$20+$7.5-$44-$1.4 = $20.6

In that case we win $20

Using the same calculations, and asuming he only plays T9 like this, nets us $8.


Using all of the calculations above and assuming he folds his set when we hit, our net is -$27.5 $4.5 -$9.5 respectively. And if he folds it half of the time: -$18 $12.5 -$1.


I don't think he can fold a set very often, and I think he plays some of his combo-draws like this, so I think it's a call. But sitting at the table, I could have a different/better read, and it could very well be a fold.
If you think it's really close, you might want to fold, since it's a high variance play.

[/ QUOTE ]


is it bad that i never bother to follow the math in these types of analysis?


someone check the numbers, but my basic feel is call. unlikely to have high reverse implied and we have a lot of outs yo


also call so sb can call so that he can hit a flush too. if sb shoves and bb calls, its not the best but call and suckout ldo

[Jay Riall]

[ QUOTE ]
someone check the numbers, but my basic feel is call. unlikely to have high reverse implied and we have a lot of outs yo

[/ QUOTE ]

Umm, no we don't. We either have 8 outs or we are ahead already like always.

[Mat Cauthon]

Jay, what do you think of my post? You're the one with the best read on villain.