#21
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Re: $400NL. AA.... fold river?!?!?
im pretty sure villain never has QQ here...
I think villains hand range is what jfish said it was but a little bit tighter (take out like J8dd, A8dd, etc...) Also villain probably doesnt think we have set/76 because we're raising the flop with those a lot. I think villain puts us on 7x or 88+...its a good bluffing spot for him. |
#22
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Re: $400NL. AA.... fold river?!?!?
Villain puts us on 7x and it's a good bluffing spot for him?
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#23
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Re: $400NL. AA.... fold river?!?!?
yea, when 7x is small portion of our range.
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#24
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Re: $400NL. AA.... fold river?!?!?
also SUPER basic question, but this is how you convert odds to % right? we are getting 1.4:1 on river, meaning we have to be good (1-[(1.4)/(1+(1.4)]) = 42%. right?
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#25
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Re: $400NL. AA.... fold river?!?!?
i do 1/[1.4+1] but that amounts to the same thing i think.
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#26
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Re: $400NL. AA.... fold river?!?!?
jfish, I agree with your line of thought in this thread, but given his preflop stats and his cold call from the SB I think his range is weighted a lot more towards small PPs, so I don't think this is a draw turned into a bluff as often as you think it might be.
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#27
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Re: $400NL. AA.... fold river?!?!?
yea hm you might be right. still a super narrow legitimate range for him. and we have the second strongest hand we can possibly have (after QQ). folding this seems exploitable.
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#28
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Re: $400NL. AA.... fold river?!?!?
and we've shown zero strength, 99% of our range cannot call this. it seems like a poor valueshove if he does have a FH.
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#29
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Re: $400NL. AA.... fold river?!?!?
my math sucks, 42% of his bluffing range is wrong.
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#30
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Re: $400NL. AA.... fold river?!?!?
friend: yeah I dont think thats how you do it when talking about the percent he has to bluff with his bluffing range
me: yea i realize its wrong friend: well that would be I guess friend: the amount he has to be bluffing with his entire range friend: so the amount is smaller for just his bluffing range friend: sine that is a smaller part of his total range friend: dont know how to do it me: so ok friend: I mean if we make it really simple friend: let me think here me: we have to have 42% equity me: vs his river betting range friend: with the combos and giving them the same probability me: we have 0% equity vs his made hands me: and 100% vs his bluffs friend: its about 70% bluffs 30% valuebets me: so he has to be bluffing 42% me: isnt that right? friend: yeah friend: didnt think thats what you meant me: it wasnt me: im reasoning it backwards now friend: I mean the amount of time he bluffs river given he is on air friend: that is what you mean right? me: so 42% of the time he has to have a bluff, meaning he has to have x/y = .42 where x = bluffing combos, y = legit hand combos + bluffing combos me: legit hand combos = 13 friend: uh I think that looks better hmm me: so1-( x/13+x)= .42 me: does that look right? friend: hold on friend: yeah I guess that looks right but I dont know if that solves the problem of hiss bluffing frequency friend: let me think friend: what is X in that me: 1 - (x/(x+13)) = 0.42 -x/(x+13) = -0.58 x/(x+13) = 0.58 x = 0.58(x+13) x = 0.58x + 7.54 0.42x = 7.54 x = 17.9 = 18 me: so if he is bluffing with 18/(29+18) combos its +ev friend: that sounds more right me: he has to be bluffing with 38% of his bluffing range |
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