Call or Fold?

[kevxu315]

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Maybe.

But is the payoff really worth it?

Like is it really worth it to risk 25 times the pot just to see if he limped with AA or KK?

I think the previous poster is absolutely right from an EV point of view you have to let this go.

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I'm not sure I get you here. Yes, the pot is miniscule compared to your stack but you get the other guy's stack if you're right so the payoff is doubling your stack.

The odds are virtually 1:1 so you need to be right 50% of the time.

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Also you are forgetting that while the odds may be 1:1 (thats debatable in my opinion) but for argument's sake, can you honestly tell me that from an EV perspective it makes any sense to risk 500BB when you are not pot committed in any way and you have no read on either player? (I don't see how you can just assume or dismiss that the first player is not strong either because it seems like you are solely concentrating on the big blind.)

A lot of players will flop a set and bet early position.

My point is if any of these two have a J, you have to assume their kicker is a 4 or under. (thats a stretchy assumption)

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As far as odds, you said your stack was 25 times the size of the pot. So if villain has a much as you he will put in 25 times the size of the pot so your odds will be 26:25 which is slightly better than 1:1 but pretty close.

For a call to be +EV, let's do some calculations but keep them simple.

If he has a stone cold bluff or AA-QQ or TT, 99, etc, you will win 100% of the time.

If he has Jx or xx, you will lose 100% of the time.

So keeping it simple, it is +EV to call if 50% of the time he has a stone cold bluff or AA-QQ or TT, 99, etc.

The reason I differentiated a tourney and a cash game is that the probability that this play is a stone cold bluff is much higher in a tourney than in a cash game. And the probability of playing AA-QQ like this is again much higher in a tourney.

Of course for me to call this, I would need to be there at that moment and use my instincts but I can say with all honesty, my gut tells me even right now that this all-in is more likely a scare tactic than a shove with the nuts.

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besides Jx, he may also have JK or JQ (some people limp with JK or JQ) which while doesn't have you drawing dead, you're pretty much way underdog.

I just feel like the read isn't good enough and with one player behind you to make a call here.