General finsih distrubution question

[TruFloridaGator]

OP, what samples are you talking about? You need to log an insane HU sample to even understand your distro. HU has more variance than anything else. You can be playing perfect & losing over a very long while.

[ymu]

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you should bubble less often than any other finish position.

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Surely this is nonsense?

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Yes, this is nonsense. If you are finishing 9th more than 4th, something is seriously wrong.

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Fair enough, wasn't thinking about the later places. 4th should be lower than 3rd and 5th.

[DevinLake]

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you should bubble less often than any other finish position.

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Surely this is nonsense?

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Yes, this is nonsense. If you are finishing 9th more than 4th, something is seriously wrong.

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Fair enough, wasn't thinking about the later places. 4th should be lower than 3rd and 5th.

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agreed.

[sbj]

This is probably better posted in the PokerTracker forums, but I thought of it while reading this post.

Is there an easy way to total the starting stack of you and your opponents in all SNG's where you got to heads-up? You could then take your percentage of that total and in theory that should be the percentage of times you finish first. If its higher, you are doing well in heads up play. If ts lower, you have room for improvement.

Hmmm.

[eejit]

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OP, what samples are you talking about? You need to log an insane HU sample to even understand your distro. HU has more variance than anything else. You can be playing perfect & losing over a very long while.

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Decent sample, about 2000 games

[Daddys_Visa]

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This is probably better posted in the PokerTracker forums, but I thought of it while reading this post.

Is there an easy way to total the starting stack of you and your opponents in all SNG's where you got to heads-up? You could then take your percentage of that total and in theory that should be the percentage of times you finish first. If its higher, you are doing well in heads up play. If ts lower, you have room for improvement.

Hmmm.

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This ia exactly what I have done. I added a new sheet to Aleomagus's great Excel spreadsheet. It basically calculates exactly what you have said:

1.) Calculates your ave chip stack when you start HU.
2.) Use that value to determine you predicted win % if you were exactly as skilled as your opponent.
3.) Compared the observed win % to this predicted one to determine if you are better than your ave HU opponent.

There seems to be a lot of variance to this result though. I only have like 400 data points so far and I can immediately tell that is not nearly enough. I tried graphing my ObsWin%-PredWin% and the graph is pretty meaningless. I figure you would need a few thousand data points at least.