the US dollar is turning into toilet paper - Page 3

Maulik · #1 07-09-2007, 04:06 PM

Boris,

Oil is also trading high because China mantains a price ceiling on oil, removing incentives to expand refining capacity. How does that directly or indirectly affect the price of oil stateside?

Boris · #2 07-09-2007, 04:18 PM

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Boris,

Oil is also trading high because China mantains a price ceiling on oil, removing incentives to expand refining capacity. How does that directly or indirectly affect the price of oil stateside?

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I don't know how the refining industry works in China. If the gov't builds the refineries and then imposes caps on the retail price, then one would think that would lead to increased Chinese oil consumption. So it could actually be the case that Chinese price ceilings increase the world wide price of oil by increasing Chinese consumer demand, not by restricting supply.

DannyOcean_ · #3 07-09-2007, 04:51 PM

Here's my perspective on the US economy: it's fine.

Do you know what the average growth in real GDP has been for the US since 1790? Stop and think about the incredible transformations america underwent for all those years, and guess how fast we grew on average. Got a guess? It's a little over 2%. Our historical average growth has been around 2% in real terms. Kinda puts things in perspective when we have growth significantly higher than that for 4 years (2003-2006), averaging around 3.5%, and people are still talking like "woe is the US, nothing looks good for us at all, etc etc". The economy is fine. Small businesses are flourishing all over the place. Productivity is through the roof. Unemployment is laughably low.

The last 12 months have been a little slower, with an average growth of 2%, but please guys, remember that the sky is not falling. Let's not be chicken littles and assume that every minor problem means a major downfall, or that a temporary boom means omg we're invincible. The US economy is going to keep on pumping out these steady gains for a long time.

http://www.econedlink.org/lessons/in...p;page=teacher

"Economic growth, as measured by average annual changes in real GDP, was 4.4 percent in the 1960s. Average rates of growth decreased during the 1970s (3.3%), the 1980s (3.0%), and the first half of the 1990s (2.2%). In the last five years of the 1990s, the rate of growth in real GDP increased to 3.8 percent, with the last three years of the 1990s being at or over 4.1 percent per year. Growth slowed in the beginning of the 2000s, but rebounded and averaged 3.5 percent on an annual basis for the 2003 through 2006 period. "

"Following the 2001 recession, growth in real GDP increased in 2002, 2003, and 2004, reaching 3.9 percent in 2004. The annual rate of growth decreased slightly in 2005 and 2006 to 3.2 and 3.3 percent respectively. Growth in the first quarter of 2006 was rapid and slowed in the second, third, and fourth quarters 0f 2006. The rate of growth in the first quarter of 2007 is the lowest since the fourth quarter of 2002.

The rate of growth over the last twelve months has been slightly under 2 percent, the slowest of any twelve-month period since the end of 2002 and beginning of 2003. The actual rates for the last three quarters of 2006 were 2.6, 2.0, and 2.5 percent "

prohornblower · #4 07-10-2007, 01:32 AM

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Everything I read and hear pretty much says that dollar will definitely continue to decline...

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This is as good a reason as any to bet that the dollar's relative value will increase.

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It also clarifies why the probability that it increases or decreases is equal.

DannyOcean_ · #5 07-10-2007, 02:08 AM

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Everything I read and hear pretty much says that dollar will definitely continue to decline...

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This is as good a reason as any to bet that the dollar's relative value will increase.

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It also clarifies why the probability that it increases or decreases is equal.

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People who try to predict things like currency fluctuations end up dying early. However, they do have the benefit of being right 50% of the time.

ThaSaltCracka · #6 07-10-2007, 02:35 AM

I haven't read everything, but my two observations/comments.

My understanding is that the Bush Admin has been leaning torwards lowering the value of the dollar, without saying so. The reason being that it will benefit the US economy and in particular US industry and manufacturing.

Secondly, I have definitely noticed my money has been stretched thin in the past 2 years. prices are definitely increasing, but wages don't seem to be increasing at the same level. I have confirmed this with several people, but it's all anecdotal.

TheMetetron · #7 07-10-2007, 03:45 AM

I have access to a wide-range of JPY, CHF, EUR, and GBP denominated equity, money-market, and bond funds through my Swiss Bank.

I haven't yet taken advantage of it, but I intend to invest in these a lot more in the future, especially since they have small/mid-cap Japan & European equity funds which make me happy [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Unfortunately, the ER on these bastards is TWO PERCENT. Going to have to decide if that is worth it.

Anyone know how this affects US taxes and how I need to pay taxes on this? Worth it or not?

Edit: They also have Japan & Europe Index Funds with .6% ER, but I guess I could just get the same thing cheaper through Vanguard. Might make another thread asking for advice on how to invest with these fund options I have.