pitch outs....

[Karak567]

is there any statistical data on these?

are they +EV or -EV?

cause every time i see them used these days either

a) the guy doesnt go and they get a free ball

or

b) the guy steals anyways

i think b happens often because you generally use pitch outs on guys who are sure to attempt and these guys are, obviously, the best at stealing bases

[Artdogg]

+EV if you have the correct read! dont you play poker?

[Karak567]

[ QUOTE ]
+EV if you have the correct read! dont you play poker?

[/ QUOTE ]

well, yeah

im talking about stats over time... im trying to evaluate whether or not, on average, teams have the "correct read"

and factor in the times when they do have the "correct read"... is it successful at a high enough percentage to compensate for not having the correct read?

[zgall1]

The book The Book - Playing the Percentages in Baseball does a basic game theory analysis on the pitch out and I think I remember it saying that managers are good at calling them. I don't recall if they actually said near optimal.

[KLJ]

i'd estimate that it's +EV mostly because a lot of the times managers do it in situations where giving the free ball isn't very -EV