AK

Go_BroKe · #1 06-02-2007, 11:00 AM

Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $51.05
BB: $45.00
UTG: $67.00
MP: $64.25
Hero (CO): $88.48
BTN: $49.25

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 Players)
2 folds, Hero raises to $2.00, 2 folds, BB calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.25) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50

Turn: ($9.25) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $5.50, BB raises to $11.00, Hero ???

villian is unknown

Triggerle · #2 06-02-2007, 11:08 AM

Bet more on flop ($3.50) and turn ($7 as played, $8 or so with a bigger flop bet). This makes villian less likely to try to make a move on you and you can fold to the check-raise more easily.

Edit: I just noticed that he bet the flop. I'd raise the flop and then slow down if he calls the raise.

finegrinder · #3 06-02-2007, 11:18 AM

If you're not already way behind (against trips or full house [edit]), you're not too vulnerable to be outdrawn. Call turn check-raise (as played). Let him bluff or price the river.

Go_BroKe · #4 06-02-2007, 12:08 PM

Why should i raise the flop here?

I made a small bet on the turn because the board is dry, and i wanted value from Kx or some pocket pairs.

shyturtle27 · #5 06-02-2007, 12:13 PM

You need to raise to see if he has a nine or not. If he 3-bets then fold and if he calls then try to check turn for pot control.

Gullanian · #6 06-02-2007, 12:13 PM

If you raise the flop and if then he raises back at you you can safefly fold as it is highly likely he is holding a 9.

If you raise the flop and he flat calls, because you are in position you should be able to get to showdown pretty cheaply.

hummusx · #7 06-02-2007, 12:20 PM

This is a spot where I would normally call the flop as well. I'd rather not take away his aggression since there aren't any cards that I'm scared of.

Unless he's a known tricky player, or has a high check/raise, is this one of those spots where the turn raise means he has it? I suppose not really because he bet the flop and then checked-raised. I don't really get what his plan was. A normal person wouldn't expect hero to bet here.

Gullanian · #8 06-02-2007, 12:28 PM

I can see the argument for calling him down but if you raise and he re-raises you can fold and lose less money than if you had called him down.

finegrinder · #9 06-02-2007, 12:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Why should i raise the flop here?

I made a small bet on the turn because the board is dry, and i wanted value from Kx or some pocket pairs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think the flop play is terribly bad but others might reasonably disagree.

However, back to your original "as-played" question : I strongly believe that shoving (does any other bet size make sense?) his turn min-check-raise would be wrong. There's no value in such play, unless you have very specific reads. If you're absolutely sure that a min-c/r = the nuts, fold, otherwise call. The drawing hands that can beat you are two-outers or gutshots like JQ so protecting the hand is less important. There's upside in calling :

a) you look weak, so villain might think his K-low-kicker, mid-PP or whatever is good and will put more money on the river.

b) you look weak, so villain will price you less than all in on the river if he has you beat.

c) you keep the pot small when you don't know where you are.

d) you can catch good and bust him! (though the implied odds are not good there's still partial value)

e) you can induce a bluff on the river if villain is really frisky.

finegrinder · #10 06-02-2007, 01:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why should i raise the flop here?

I made a small bet on the turn because the board is dry, and i wanted value from Kx or some pocket pairs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think the flop play is terribly bad but others might reasonably disagree.

However, back to your original "as-played" question : I strongly believe that shoving (does any other bet size make sense?) his turn min-check-raise would be wrong. There's no value in such play, unless you have very specific reads. If you're absolutely sure that a min-c/r = the nuts, fold, otherwise call. The drawing hands that can beat you are two-outers or gutshots like JQ so protecting the hand is less important. There's upside in calling :

a) you look weak, so villain might think his K-low-kicker, mid-PP or whatever is good and will put more money on the river.

b) you look weak, so villain will price you less than all in on the river if he has you beat.

c) you keep the pot small when you don't know where you are.

d) you can catch good and bust him! (though the implied odds are not good there's still partial value)

e) you can induce a bluff on the river if villain is really frisky.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's a discussion of points b), c) and d) combined: let's say you're commited to go to showdown because your estimated overall EV against his whole range is positive. For simplification, let's say that you're playing for a maximum $100 bet from the turn on (earlier money is commited because of above reasons), and we'll only discuss the "stripe" from his range where he has you beat (he has a boat) but you have a 10% chance of drawing to a bigger boat (number made up).

Situation 1: you go all in on the turn, he calls you 100% of the time, you lose 90% of the time.

EV1[100 hands] = 90*(-$100)+10*$100 = -$8000

Situation 2: you call the turn to see the river with money behind and you will lose only $50 when you don't boat up ; when you make your boat you will go all in and win a full $100

EV2[100 hands] = 90*(-$50)+10*$100 = -$3500

EV2 - EV1 = $4500

You see that drawing to your boat does not offer the implied odds to make you a winner against this particular subrange, however it adds to your overall expectation.

Money saved is money won.

Does this make any sense or am I full of bull? [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]