Another 100nl hand for erryone takin shots at it: AA on monotone flop

[kaz2107]

well sense it seems like lots of micros r close to 100nl and thus postin a few 100nl hands here more recently here is one i played recently that my strike up some discusion. note stack sized fa sho

STAGE #595945535: HOLDEM NO LIMIT $1 - 2007-03-07 01:53:27 (ET)
Table: CITRUS HEIGHTS (Real Money) Seat #1 is the dealer
Seat 1 - MNPOKERKING ($92.32 in chips)
Seat 2 - HERO ( <font color="green"> $199 in chips </font> )
Seat 3 - SULCATA ($133.35 in chips)
Seat 4 - THANGBAIHAI ($60.85 in chips)
Seat 5 - Villian ( <font color="green"> $228.28 in chips </font> )
Seat 6 - WYLDTHING89 ($215.25 in chips)
JUMPMANHOLLA - Posts small blind $0.50
SULCATA - Posts big blind $1
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]]
THANGBAIHAI - Calls $1
Villian - Raises $4 to $4
WYLDTHING89 - Folds
MNPOKERKING - Folds
HERO - Raises $13.50 to $14
SULCATA - Folds
THANGBAIHAI - Folds
Villian - Calls $10
*** FLOP *** [9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]]
HERO - Bets $21
Villian - All-In(Raise) $214.28 to $214.28
HERO????


Reads...
Villian is a laggy reg who plays around 29 23 3.5 he is dece and deffinalty isnt scared to make a big bluff or two. my note on him says he calls my 3 bets lite but also that i had been 3 betting him a lot (but this is tha 2nd hand at tha table so i have no idea if he remebers i was 3 betting him light bfore or not???)

so anyways wut r u doin here being 200 bbs deep and the monotone flop?? call or fold?

PS
sorry tha converter doesnt seem to b workin now that i am back from break

[dirtylobster]

Why take the chance? If he's so eager to shove his chips you'll probably get a better chance.

[boycalledroy]

Yeah you could be drawing almost dead here. Wait til you have some live stuff!

[98Suited]

I think I'd fold this 200bb deep. Of course this might be a draw, but it could also be small flush/2-pair if he calls your 3-bets light, a set

[barryc83]

Does he ever show up with 999 or 888 here? You have to think he wouldnt play a flush like this. Looks more like Ah or a smaller overpair to me. But what do I know, I took a 5 BI shot at 100nl this weekend and lost it all.

[kaz2107]

lets put villian on some sort of a range both preflop and on the flop please instead of these one line responses that dont help n e one. kthnx

[Gelford]

I've tried fiddling with a range and it shows 50-50 .... and this is even a fairly tight range imo.


I think it is just one of those HOLLA!! spots, where the difference in EV is small no matter what you do.

Question is if he would shove a made hand or only as a semibluff .... I've started experimenting with shoving made hands especially with a bad image, but many have a tendency to shove draws and milk the goods (kinda dumb actually)


I say spitecall him (I used to play sngs you know)



------------------------------------

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

48,510 games 0.005 secs 9,702,000 games/sec

Board: 9h 8h 3h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.075% 49.01% 01.07% 23774 517.50 { AdAs }
Hand 1: 49.925% 48.86% 01.07% 23701 517.50 { AhKh, KhQh, QhJh, JhTh, Jh9h, Th9h, Th8h, 9h8h, 9h7h, 8h7h, 8h6h, 7h6h, 7h5h, 6h5h, 5h4h, AcKh, AdKc, AdKh, AhKc, AhKd, AhKs, AsKh, KdQc, KhQs, KsQc, KsQd, QsJc, QsJd, QsJh, JcTh, JdTh, JhTc, JhTd, JhTs, JsTh, T9o, 98o, 87o }


---

[DawnToDusk]

A little more about your image please. You ahve been 3betting him plenty and you say he has called them plenty, but what about your overall image. Seen as a TAG? LAG? Weak tight? He could have some speculative hands in there such as suited connectors but I think we will find our speculative ahdsnt o be pocket pairs more often than not in this spot. He could also have a legit hand like AK, AQ, or something along the likes. If he had a stronger hand I think he might be more inclined to 3bet in this spot as you have been 3betting him a lot. Maybe light, maybe not. So PF I put him on:

AJ+, KQ, KK/QQ (more inclined to 3bet this hand IMO), 77+, 98s+. You agree more or less?

On the flop any bet like that is going to be really hard for you to call unless you definately have a strong hand. This push seems to me like he could have any number of hands. He might already have flush and is worried that you have the Ah or some other high &lt;3 that makes his flush 2nd best if you hit. He might also have a set and worry the same thing. I don't think he pushes an overpair here like this so I think we can take out KK/QQ/JJ/TT. He might even have two pair (having called with like 98s) and be worrying still about your &lt;3. So it looks like the hands that he could of made that have strength, he is worried about. He could also of pushed this with some draw. He might have an Ah in a hand like AK, AQ, AJ etc. He might of even been lose enough to call with Ah9x and push here. If he already did have the nut flush he isn't really getting any value from his bet here so I think we can count that out too. So far on the flop we can put him on:

99/88 for a set (maybe even 33)
98 for 2 pair
Weaker made flush
Ah with or without something else on the board

Hows that look to you so far?

You are ahead of the Ah with or without something like a pair too. But you are probably a dog with two to come. You are already a dog to the sets and two pair hands. So its looking to me as a fold. Let me think a little more about it and then I will post again in a few. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[DawnToDusk]

Any PP in there for sets?

[Brian O'Nolan]

You note that villain will call 3bets light and you are 200 bbs deep, so he's gonna have a fairly wide range. I would say he's calling almost all your 3bets with anything he's raising UTG+1... any pair, SC's, suited aces... AJ/KQ broadway hands he probably folds. It's a pretty good flop for him to push you off an overpair- without the Ah it's going to be hard for you to call his shove. Tough spot... I like a fold being your 2nd hand at the table. How did you double up in the first hand?