200NL - misclick 3bet preflop (lol) with straight vs carrotsnake

[SilentNoise]

Hands like Q9? You dont think hes 4betting with JJ and fast playing any flopped set?

[Keyser.]

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Hands like Q9? You dont think hes 4betting with JJ and fast playing any flopped set?

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I don't think he 4bets JJ.

[EmoBadBeat]

Thinking about this hand makes me want to slit my wrists. You ask yourself what you did to make God punish you, what made him take away the girl of your dreams, what made him give you an understraight in this setup hand. The dude just obviously has KQ and God is trying to set you up to lose your stack. Defy Him.

"Down the road, not across the street, down the road, not across the street" I keep telling myself after I get rivered in yet another pot.

[intensity]

[ QUOTE ]
Thinking about this hand makes me want to slit my wrists. You ask yourself what you did to make God punish you, what made him take away the girl of your dreams, what made him give you an understraight in this setup hand. The dude just obviously has KQ and God is trying to set you up to lose your stack. Defy Him.

"Down the road, not across the street, down the road, not across the street" I keep telling myself after I get rivered in yet another pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Possibly best post ever?

Oh and I call btw.

[tufat23]

having talked to carrotsnake about his mental state at the time, and having just got stacked 3 times on the table


you should: call dont missclick kthx

[SilentNoise]

well after reading to the responses saying "call" without much reasoning of what they put carrot on and 97 vs that equity etc how often he is going to overbet bluff into such a small pot etc...i thought id give my reasoning as to why i thought i shouldn't call.

firstly i am going to assume some things:
1) He 4bets AA preflop, so this isn't in his range. I think he approx coldcalls a 3bet with AA OOP 0% of the time.
2) He fastplays his sets into the preflop raiser on an A-high board hoping I have the ace. Especially into two people. This is standard 2p2 line i believe.
3) If he did somoehow decide to slowplay 44/88 on the flop, he is definately betting the turn because he needs to build the pot at somepoint
4) He might check 1010 on the turn to let me have a stab since if he checks its been checked to me twice, so he might think i think its a good spot to bluff...so 1010 IS in his range
5) If he does somehow slowplay 1010 on the turn, he definately bets it on the river, and the same goes for JJ...so 1010/JJ ARE IN his range.
6) Q9 is in his range as an opening hand ...it definately is coz he opens with alot of 2gappers utg.
7) KQ is obviosly in his range.
8) Some % of the time he will 4bet my min3bet with 1010/JJ so him having 1010/JJ isn't as likely as his other holdings...but i wont even consider this for now. Anyway here is one equity calculation (haven't used stove in a long time - point out any mistakes i have made ini the calculation if any please)

Hand 0: 17.647% { 9s7d }
Hand 1: 82.353% { JJ-TT, KQs, Q9s, KQo, Q9o }

Now just to keep people happy lets say he has actually got 44/88 here and it is equally likely in his range (obviously isn't - but whatever)

Hand 0: 30.000% { 9s7d }
Hand 1: 70.000% { JJ-TT, 88, 44, KQs, Q9s, KQo, Q9o }

How about we come up with a compromise like 97 is 25% against his range.

So we need 3-1 on the call for it to be breakeven. Lets have a look at the pot on the river. Hero has carrotsnake covered. On the river the pot is 43$+185$=228$, 186$ to call. So I'm getting 228-186 = 1.2-1 odds...not the 3-1 that we need.

Obviously this assumes that carrot isn't capable of bluffing in this situation. But i dont think carrot isn't going to bluff shove the river 185 into a 40 pot with air is he?? Surely he knows thats gotta work such a high % of the time to be profitable. Hes risking 185 to win 43...so it has to work 80% of the time to breakeven in the longrun. I think he knows a smaller bet like 50 or so can achieve the same thing so I think this is a pure blff a very small % of the time.

This is also assuming that he isn't 4betting me with 1010/JJ which I think he will sometimes. Pleae point out any flaws in my equity calculations and general argument.

Thanks.

[carrotsnake]

Wheres tilt equity in that calc ?

[HYG]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Thinking about this hand makes me want to slit my wrists. You ask yourself what you did to make God punish you, what made him take away the girl of your dreams, what made him give you an understraight in this setup hand. The dude just obviously has KQ and God is trying to set you up to lose your stack. Defy Him.

"Down the road, not across the street, down the road, not across the street" I keep telling myself after I get rivered in yet another pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Definitely best post ever !



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edit: fold

[SilentNoise]

"carrotsnake: wheres tilt equity in that calc?"

just for approximation, lets say im getting even money (1-1) on the river call. You need to be on a pure bluff on the river with any 9 combinations of your coldcalling range preflop (see below for proof);

Now lets also assume since it was a minraise you are calling with 100% of your utg raising range. According to my pt you are raising 20% of your hands UTG, which includes every pocket pair. We have deduced that you didn't have 88/44/AA/KK so there are now 9pocket pairs and 6 combinations of each of those. Thats 54combination of your pf calling range. And if you check stove, if you are raising 20% of your hands UTG, there are any 31hands and 6combinations of each of those so 186combinations of your pf calling range. So preflop there are 186+54=240 hand combinations that you are cold calling my 3bet with, and you need to be bluffing on the river with 9 of these...which works out that you need to be on a stone cold bluff about 5% of the time for this to be profitable. I think it is alot lower than this since you realise the more you are risking to win a certain amount, the less profitable it is, especially since you can probably achieve the same thing with a 50$ bet, or if you are really tilting, 100$.

Anybody else disagree?

Hand 0: 50.000% 50.00% 00.00% 28 0.00 { 9s7d }
Hand 1: 50.000% 50.00% 00.00% 28 0.00 { JJ-TT, 88, 44, KQs, Q9s, KQo, Q9o, T2o, 8c2d, 8c2h, 8c2s, 8d2h, 8d2s, 8h2d, 8h2s, 8s2d, 8s2h }

[Chaos_ult]

What makes you think 82o is in his range?