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#1
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Re: STTF SNG->cash thread
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] SB is 19/15/3.8 through 310 hands and has a flop AF of 10.5 Full Tilt Poker No Limit Holdem Ring game Blinds: $0.50/$1 6 players Converter Stack sizes: Hero: $115.60 UTG+1: $290.50 CO: $103.40 Button: $58.45 SB: $162.50 BB: $98 Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $4</font>, 3 folds, SB calls, BB folds. Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($9, 2 players) SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $7</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $21</font>, Hero calls. Turn: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($51, 2 players) <font color="#cc0000">SB bets $32</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises all-in $90.6</font> [/ QUOTE ] Shouldn't we just be in a call turn/call river mode here? Possibly value betting the river if he checks? [/ QUOTE ] I think there's little chance villain has a hand like AJ (or a worse A) here and more likely he has cc or a set. AK and AQ are also possible. I dont know what to do here but I kind of think the best, or least bad decisions, are either shove or fold the turn because of the pot and stack sizes. [/ QUOTE ] So there is no option to the calling of the flop raise? |
#2
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Re: STTF SNG->cash thread
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] SB is 19/15/3.8 through 310 hands and has a flop AF of 10.5 Full Tilt Poker No Limit Holdem Ring game Blinds: $0.50/$1 6 players Converter Stack sizes: Hero: $115.60 UTG+1: $290.50 CO: $103.40 Button: $58.45 SB: $162.50 BB: $98 Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $4</font>, 3 folds, SB calls, BB folds. Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($9, 2 players) SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $7</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $21</font>, Hero calls. Turn: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($51, 2 players) <font color="#cc0000">SB bets $32</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises all-in $90.6</font> [/ QUOTE ] Shouldn't we just be in a call turn/call river mode here? Possibly value betting the river if he checks? [/ QUOTE ] I think there's little chance villain has a hand like AJ (or a worse A) here and more likely he has cc or a set. AK and AQ are also possible. I dont know what to do here but I kind of think the best, or least bad decisions, are either shove or fold the turn because of the pot and stack sizes. [/ QUOTE ] So there is no option to the calling of the flop raise? [/ QUOTE ] I dont know about that, but I think the flop checkraise/turn bet screams strength for a guy with numbers like he has. At the time of the checkraise his range is wider so maybe calling the flop bet isnt bad? Someone correct me if I'm wrong here please. |
#3
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Re: STTF SNG->cash thread
[ QUOTE ]
SB is 19/15/3.8 through 310 hands and has a flop AF of 10.5 Full Tilt Poker No Limit Holdem Ring game Blinds: $0.50/$1 6 players Converter Stack sizes: Hero: $115.60 UTG+1: $290.50 CO: $103.40 Button: $58.45 SB: $162.50 BB: $98 Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $4</font>, 3 folds, SB calls, BB folds. Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($9, 2 players) SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $7</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $21</font>, Hero calls. Turn: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($51, 2 players) <font color="#cc0000">SB bets $32</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises all-in $90.6</font> [/ QUOTE ] Well, here are my thoughts, FWTW. His flop raise doesn't really scare me, considering his high flop AF. He's probably noticed through those 310 hands that I'll c-bet pretty much every time and he thinks (correctly to some degree) that he has a fair amount of folding equity. Normally, I'd like to put him on a draw, but there aren't a whole lot of draws for the preflop calling range of 19/15 player. I do expect him to have something like 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] once in a very long while, but 100 BB isn't deep enough for me to really worry about it. The most likely draw is something like K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Looking back at the hand, his 3-bet % was only 3% at the time, so his range after he c/r's is something like {22-TT,K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img],maybe K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img],maybe AK,maybe AQs}. If that's really his range, I'm well ahead of it. I'm not folding, so my choices are calling or raising. If I raise, it pretty much has to be a shove. He's probably calling a shove with most of his range, but some of the wacky weaker draws might get spooked and correctly fold, as well as some of the lower PP's. However, if I call his flop bet and let him continue to bet on the turn (which I see him doing most the time to follow his flop c/r save for sometimes weak hands like the mid PP's), I get the last $90 in with a huge equity edge any time the turn isn't a "club:. I probably get away from the hand on any [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] turn since I'm not really beating anything but a bluff then, and there aren't really any bluffs left in his range anyway. The turn 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] sucks, but not enough to abort the plan. Both 44 and 33 got there and both are well in his c/r range, but so is a lot of other stuff that is now stuck to the hand and I'm beating. EDIT: Microbet just pointed out something very important to me: the make-up of that 10.5 flop AF. All it really means is he rarely calls the flop. His actual Raise/Call/Fold distribution when facing a flop bet is 11/11/79, so he's not actually that aggro on the flop. I really should have considered folding more seriously than I did. |
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