UFC 65 11/18/06

[swope]

* UFC 65 11/18/06

First off, there is a flourishing UFC 65 discussion already taking place here , but 99% of it is just people arguing their case for GSP v Hughes, and since BOF just released nearly full fight lines, I wanted to start with a clean slate.

Performify; if you want to merge this thread into the other, I cant fault you for it, but in the interests of focused discussion Im starting this one.

Ok;

Hughes v GSP
-130 - +110

Im not going to beat this horse as its dead and starting to fall apart. Im picking Hughes because everything about his fight style is perfectly suited to please UFC judges. I see GSP dominating the first round then barely winning the second, and losing the next 3 to takedowns and ground damage. Thats just me, thats how I see it, follow your dreams.

5 units on Hughes

Sylvia v Monson
-260 - +220

Its so easy to imagine Monson winning this, because once he takes the fight to the ground its seriously over for Timmay, but watch how badly Monson dealt with PDP's totally laughable standup and its easy to see why Im picking Timmay. 5 rounds of Timmay backing up and jabbing and generally messing up Monson's face is what I anticipate, although no one will cheer louder than me if Monson wins.

2.6 units on Timmay

Vera v Mir
-350 - +290

Vera already made his game plan public and its the one I was hoping to hear; hes going to chop down Mir's leg. One sided ass whippery from Vera shall ensue, most likely.

5 units on Vera

Sakara v McFedries
-550 - +450
Sakara should win this but at -550, I plan on using this fight only to spice up my parlays.

Stevenson v Mishima
-260 - +220
I like Mishima on this one. Even if you argue that their jits is equal (and I would never make that argument), Mishima has fought such higher caliber fighters that you have to give him the edge.

1 unit on Mishima.

Diaz v Tibau
-550 - +450
Yeah, Diaz will most likely finally get a solid W with this one. Who knows tho.. Hard to argue against putting half a unit against Diaz no matter who he fights these days. Still and all, Ill sit this one out. No real value.

Hardonk v Sherman-300 - +250

I really dont know anything about these fighters.

Ramirez v Irvin
-135 - +115
Not a huge fan of either of these fighters. Put a gun to my head and Ill pick Irvin, shrug.

betonfighting.com also offers fight day parlays on MMA events, which comes in very handy and makes up for some of the issues attendent with doing business with betcris.. I plan on doing some hedging with the following parlays:

.25 units on GSP/Monson/Diaz/Vera/Sakara
.25 units on GSP/Timmay/Diaz/Vera/Sakara
.25 units on Hughes/Monson/Diaz/Vera/Sakara
.25 units on Hughes/Timmay/Diaz/Vera/Sakara
.25 units on Diaz/Mir/Sakara

Wont have the math to back these up until fight day but I believe any one of these will return something around 2.5 - 5 units.