Player Discussion

[RunningSixes]

I'm going to take a stab at this...

In order to make my arguement as convincing as possible im going to try to use several Mason quotes and show why I think they lead to the wrong conclusion.

quote 1:

[ QUOTE ]
According to my analysis, if Player A chooses to call the $110 raise (to $150) there are strategies available to him where he shows a profit relative to folding after he has already put his initial $40 in the pot. That means since he just happens to be against precisely a pair of jacks he wants to keep playing as opposed to folding where he forfeits his original $40 investment.

If you buy my analysis as being reasonably good, this statement has to mean that you would prefer the ace-queen suited at precisely this point in time in precisely this situation. That's as clear as I can make it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here Mason says that since it is +EV for the AQs to call the $110 raise, you would prefer to have the AQs. While I agree that Mason has shown it is profitable to call the raise, I disagree that you would rather have the AQs.

In this example when AQs calls the raise he will make $15 accoring to Mason's analysis. So, where does this $15 come from?

quote 2:

[ QUOTE ]
If he chooses to play, and perhaps follows the strategy I outlined and it gives him a positive expectation from that point on, then that positive expectation must come from somewhere. In this case it can only come from Player B who holds the jacks.

[/ QUOTE ]

I beleive this is incorrect. The +EV experience by the AQ in this case comes from the $55 already in the pot from the blinds and AQs's initial raise. When AQs makes the call of the $110, there is $55 in the pot in addition to the $150 raise the the player with JJ. AQs take 15 from that 55, leave JJ with a profit of $40 after the flop.

So, while AQs makes a profit of $15 this does not mean you prefer it to JJ because JJ makes a profit of $40.


To make this clear, examine a much simpler situation.
Play is heads up with no blinds and $100 stack sizes. Player A opens with 22 for $90. Player B moves all in for $100. Obviously in this case it is +EV for 22 to call. But, just because it is +EV for 22 to call does not mean you prefer 22 to AA in this situation.