AQo - Preflop question

[Nick Royale]

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I tend to call or 3bet in this spot, but I'm starting to believe that's wrong. Fold is probably the best option.

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This is what I used to do, until just this week where someone said it would be better to fold/raise. (it was just an open raiser).


What does SSHE say? I used to love AQ, but I'm fearing our fast and heavy relationship may be ending.

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In general 3-betting or calling an UTG raise with AQo is wrong. You need a read to deviate from the standard fold line. This is a type of player where I think 3-betting is close, but still it's a probably a worse option than just folding. I think at the button it becomes closer.

[ledfoot]

SSHE says to fold AQ offsuit in a tight game, raise when the game is loose. Call or raise regardless of tight/loose if it's suited. AQ offsuit is the one hand in which I digress from Ed's advice and call under any game conditions.

[Nick Royale]

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SSHE says to fold AQ offsuit in a tight game, call when the game is loose. Call regardless if it's suited. AQ offsuit is the one hand in which I digress from Ed's advice and call under any game conditions.

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This is something you need to change. And your action should be highly dependant on the read of the pfr and often 3-betting is better than calling if the read you have suggest you should see a flop with it.

[Bluffoon]

Pre flop raiser is a little loose but not enough for me to reraise without a read that he raises light from EP. I fold this especially with someone else involved. I would be more inclined to get involved if it was headsup and if it is suited I CC 100% in this type of situation.

[Mattymar]

Ouch, a UTG raise and a reasonable player cold calling. That situation makes me sick with AQ. I think I'd save myself and fold. It's tough when you think UTG might have changing raising standards and if it were folded to you and you were on the button we would be looking at an easy reraise. But the cold-caller kinda messed things up. I would say you're not in good shape too often here.

That said, people can surprise you. Last night, a guy at my table with an 8% VPIP over about 150 hands cold-called in middle position. He ended up showing down KJs and I was taken aback a bit. However, I still like folding because there's just too many ways you could be in trouble here.

[Mr.K]

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Pfr is 30/10.7/1.1
CCer is 22/6/1.9


Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, Hero folds...

What did I just do? 3-bet, right?

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I'm with the fold camp, but I see why we'd want to be situation specific about this decision. Interesting to note that the coldcaller is tight &amp; aggressive, but not TOO tight. If his AF is 1.9, and he just called, then we have to discount things like AA, KK, QQ to some degree, since we'd expect a 3-bet from those hands. What do I expect CCer to have instead? TT, AJs, AQ, etc. He may have us dominated, he may not, but I am more worried about him than I am about the PFR.

Is there agreement that IF we decide to play, we MUST 3-bet this? Why overcoldcall and let others in "cheap" behind us AND fail to find out exactly how strong UTG thinks he is?

[Nick Royale]

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Is there agreement that IF we decide to play, we MUST 3-bet this? Why overcoldcall and let others in "cheap" behind us AND fail to find out exactly how strong UTG thinks he is?

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Yes. If we think we're in good enough to play this we don't want to encourage multiway action since AQo isn't our best warrior in multiway pots.

On the button I 3-bet this, if the caller was looser I would 3-bet, I thnk this is marginal but a fold. Since UTG could have AK/AA-QQ I think he's a bigger concern than the CCer. The CCer won't hold AA/KK, and not AK/QQ often even though there's a risk he does.

I like someone mentioning that this situation is highly depending on the stats we have and that it's the stats that makes this call closer.

[TripleH68]

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Pfr is 30/10.7/1.1
CCer is 22/6/1.9


Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, Hero folds...

What did I just do? 3-bet, right?

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What do you make of these numbers?

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

103,957,983,360 games 211.609 secs 491,273,921 games/sec

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 31.6754 % 29.35% 02.33% { 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, ATo+, KQo }
Hand 2: 41.9219 % 38.05% 03.87% { 88+, ATs+, KQs, AQo+ }
Hand 3: 26.4027 % 21.87% 04.54% { AQo }

[Mr.K]

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What do you make of these numbers?

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

103,957,983,360 games 211.609 secs 491,273,921 games/sec

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 31.6754 % 29.35% 02.33% { 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, ATo+, KQo }
Hand 2: 41.9219 % 38.05% 03.87% { 88+, ATs+, KQs, AQo+ }
Hand 3: 26.4027 % 21.87% 04.54% { AQo }

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First off, those numbers are not weighted, and I believe our assumptions about PFR and CC in this hand *should* be weighted. I think we should expect AA-QQ less from CC than from PFR, and we should generally expect 99-JJ, ATs-AQs, and AJo-AQo from CC more often than most other hands. I derive these expectations from his VPIP and AF. With an AF of 1.9, he's 3-betting lots of hands, and the fact that he did not 3-bet gives us a useful (but not dispositive) clue.

Back to the numbers, I think they tell us that even in a wide range for both players, we're in equity trouble. Just over 26% equity in what we hope will be a 3-way pot is not good, of course. Now, we're not pushing our stack in here, and we do have position, so equity itself isn't the only useful yardstick. The real problem is not knowing what to hope for on the flop. Do we want to spike a queen? Will that be enough? What about hitting an ace? Will we be dominated? Will we know if we're against a set (large or medium) before it's too late?

As has been said before, I think the specific situation at hand (who the PFR and CCer are) is highly relevant. Using math may take second seat to playing the players here. I still want to fold in the example given by OP. In other examples (folded to hero on the button, or CCer is loose-passive), I probably 3-bet, call a cap, and c/f without lots of help on the flop.

[Nick Royale]

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Pfr is 30/10.7/1.1
CCer is 22/6/1.9


Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, Hero folds...

What did I just do? 3-bet, right?

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What do you make of these numbers?

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

103,957,983,360 games 211.609 secs 491,273,921 games/sec

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 31.6754 % 29.35% 02.33% { 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, ATo+, KQo }
Hand 2: 41.9219 % 38.05% 03.87% { 88+, ATs+, KQs, AQo+ }
Hand 3: 26.4027 % 21.87% 04.54% { AQo }

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Why didn't I think of stoving it? I think this is a more relevant sim:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 37.1456 % 34.51% 02.63% { 88+, ATs+, KTs+, QJs, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 2: 33.2539 % 28.60% 04.65% { JJ-88, AQs-ATs, KQs, AQo }
Hand 3: 29.6005 % 23.48% 06.12% { AQo }


Still it's a pretty bad idea to 3-bet here. Even worse considering the risk of one of the players behind holding AA-QQ/AK. The benefit of position and the dead money doesn't make up for making this a 3-bet it seems.

I'm curious how much the fact that this sim assumes that villain has a pretty good idea of what to raise UTG and cc with. How much will the fact that these players seem pretty poor and probably will not be able to evaluate the strength of their hands correct effect the decision? And what about the fact that we probably play pretty much better postflop? The fact that we have position? The dead money in the pot? The 3-bet will also put the pressure on the villains and maybe get them to fold incorrectly later in the hand. How much equity do we need here?


Also, using your range on UTG will give this result:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 34.7345 % 32.39% 02.35% { 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, ATo+, KQo }
Hand 2: 34.5302 % 29.69% 04.84% { JJ-88, AQs-ATs, KQs, AQo }
Hand 3: 30.7353 % 24.64% 06.09% { AQo }


Call me stubborn, but I still thinks this is a pretty close decision, in a small favor of folding. I would like opinions on my ideas though, because if you think I'm far off with my reasoning you might get me to agree.