How useful do you find combinations ?

[allenciox]

Sorry, Alan, but this is just plain wrong. This is what you need to look at:

1) What is the prior distribution of hands my opponent could have had? This is where the combinations come into play.

2) Multiply each of these hands based on his preflop actions --- hands and probability? For example, you might have noticed that this opponent usually makes extra-large raises with middle pairs but this time he made a normal-sized raise. You can't discount entirely discount they have a middle pair this time, but it is significantly reduced.

3) Then modify this probability based on their flop actions --- in this case, that they led into you.

4) Then figure out what your probability of winning the hand is.

A lot to figure out, yes? That's why you just approximate it based on work away from the table.

In this case, say you estimate that there is 50% chance that you are ahead and 50% that you are behind. The good news is that you have most likely at least 8 outs if you are behind, meaning that you are at worst 2:1 to win this hand if it goes to the end, and likely much better than that. This is a clear case for a raise. There is no way I muck my hand here.