2K6m. bottom set facing a big river push.

[ike]

edit: nevermind

[good2cu]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm calling.

Edit: Gah, missed out on the straight completing (again..). Makes it tricker; I would have called if river was K, now I don't really know.

[/ QUOTE ]

King is a much wrose card then the queen. Or at least doesn't make a difference

[MDMA]

Good2cu, you are incorrect.

[flawless_victory]

[ QUOTE ]
Good2cu, you are incorrect.

[/ QUOTE ]
the point is the guy is moving in on a potentially strong card for ME.

[SA125]

Maybe it's the opposite, but his 3/4 flop and turn bets look defensive to me, while the river overbet looks like he wants a call. If I felt like that was the case at the time, I fold.

I can see him having AQ here as easily as J9. It sucks giving your chips to unk's who play wild and get there. Which is why I consistently play flop/turn faster than I used too.

[ggbman]

Flawless,

Although i am sure you had your reasons, i don't think the turn clal can be justified with these stacks, too often a scare card comes that doesn't get you paid or makes you the second best hand, i really think you need to jack it up here.

As for the river, man it's so tough. I don't think folding is bad, but at the same time, if he has AQ or AT, which are as likely as anything until he pushes the river, he probably feels that the only viable hand you could have to beat him in J9, so may feel like he has the second nuts here.... Tough hand

[Hattifnatt]

Looks like a fold too me.

[flawless_victory]

yo ggggb,
i called on the flop cause the BB was a fish and i decided to go ahead and allow him to potentilly stay involved...

turn, weird card came and his bet was strong and in tempo... i felt like he would bet river as a bluff w/ nohting or a VB w/ an ace so i could lock up 800-1kish right there... i knowingly took the gamble knowng a str8 card can come and complicate things. i guess i did this to myself, ok.
if we had more history and he had reason to think i am out of line then i wouldve gone ahead and played it standard by raising on turn and hoping to get it in.

[ggbman]

Flawless,

I will admit that i am incredibly biased here, since everytime i slowplay a set i get stacked or get no value. I understand your rational, but given your description, i don't think someone will value bet and ace on the river but fold to a turn raise with it if they are bad.

Now Strasser, i think the value a of a turn raise is that bad players stack off with all sorts of big aces, aces up, and A7 A9 type hands. Now if the river is a blank, the same may be true, but if it's a straigh card, bad players are more inclined to c/c than a good player who will make a thinner value bet IMO.

Now that i have had some more time to think about this though, i definilty think a fold is good here, i agree with empire and strasser, this river should jus tbe a fold, i really don't think you get shown aces up or a bluff here.

[fsuplayer]

i like the fold FV, given the player info u had at the time anyways.