Final Table Hand - Opinions Please

heresjohnny · #1 08-17-2006, 09:11 AM

Final table, live, playing 5 handed. I've been quite active, not getting out of line and have shown down good hands only. I am second chip leader on 100k. The villain in this hand is a good player. He has been extremely active since tripling up in a recent hand and has started raising alot of hands. His stack is 120k.

Blinds are 2k/4k. I limp UTG with QJd. I'd usually raise here, but I want to mix my up play a little and often a limp UTG will look scary here.

Villain completes on the small blind and the BB checks.

The flop is 9T2, two clubs. The blinds check and I throw in 8k. Villain immediately raises to 25k. The BB folds.

I feel the villain has either a nine or a ten here. He definitely doesn't have air, as i've picked off a few of his steals earlier. He'd raise any pocket pair preflop. T2 and 92 are definite no nos. 9T is an outside shot, though I feel he'd have led or check-called in that spot.

I think my queen and jack are live here 75+ of the time if I hit and obviously any 8 or K.

I feel the villain has sufficient folding equity to lay down a 9 or T (he'll still have the 2nd biggest stack ~100k) so I instantly push.

All comments appreciated.

mornelth · #2 08-17-2006, 09:58 AM

Flop 1 : why not check behind? You have a good draw, you're only SOMEWHAT concerned about a club, why open yourself up to a check-raise?

Flop 2 : You're getting better than 2:1 in position with a good draw against an aggressive player. I just flat call here. I plan to most likely be all-in on the turn on any Q, J, 8, K turn and depending on my read on villain's actions - also on any club and maybe any Ace...

ty2472004 · #3 08-17-2006, 10:08 AM

Given the action (I would probably raise preflop) it's an insta-push. Fold equity combined with at least 8 outs, probably 14 makes pushing profitable.

whynot? · #4 08-17-2006, 10:15 AM

i like it

you certainly have FE, and if called you've got the semibluff of anywhere from 1/3 to a flip - i think this is def ev+

NPS · #5 08-17-2006, 05:13 PM

You only had Two Option Fold or call. No way you could Raise. The problem is the turn. If you hit no sweat But if Not now what. Your back to where you were at the flop.
So it looks like a Money management situation!

Gary07 · #6 08-17-2006, 05:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You only had Two Option Fold or call. No way you could Raise. The problem is the turn. If you hit no sweat But if Not now what. Your back to where you were at the flop.
So it looks like a Money management situation!

[/ QUOTE ]

There is no way you cannot at least think about raising in this spot. I think I move in here. He'll lay down a pair, flush draw, and a worst straight draw. His calling range would have to be two pair+.

heresjohnny · #7 08-18-2006, 07:23 AM

Any more opinions. Does anyone like a cold call? I think it's the worst option.

rustyboy · #8 08-18-2006, 09:58 AM

If it is possible he lays down the top pair, then your play was fine. I also am conncerned about a set of deuces though. flat calling is quite wrong, as the turn puts you in a much worse postion than you are in now. The lack of preflop raising masks his hand well.

HojoMofo · #9 08-18-2006, 10:41 AM

How does the turn put you in a worse position? I call, and either I hit my hand, or a scare card comes out and I wtfpwn him with leading off on the turn. Otherwise I fold and fight another hand.

rustyboy · #10 08-18-2006, 11:23 AM

Is it really impossible for him to play a set like this? If the scare card comes on the turn, or any other "miss" card for that matter, I doubt it is possible to win this pot. The push here scares away top pair now, and if he is stronger than that, you have a ton of outs. Do you not want the chips that are in the pot now as opposed to an ace coming and having to fold to his check raise push?