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#1
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Hello All,
I have read alot of good news today how the anti internet gambling bill is meeting resistance in the Senate . However, on Tradesports the odds are moving the opposite direction. Currently at 26.5 (ML +277) I am hoping bad news in not lurking. Can anyone explain?? Thank you Citrus |
#2
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Nothing I'm aware of today came out, but I've been in minimum wage battle so havent had time to pay attention.
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#3
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Ummm...why do sports lines do this? There is your answer...it's in getting that spot to where the bookie can make money but make the bet attractive.
---Leavenfish |
#4
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Hasn't it been in the 20-25 range?
The news on this has bounced around a bit but I thought the recent article was some of the best news we've heard on this. |
#5
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I'm guessing a bunch of people booked action ata the old odds so now they are adjusting.
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#6
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The Tradesports contract is probably not any more reliable than a broad, ballpark estimate. There just isn't enough volume. Several of the dramatic shifts we've seen have been triggered by one -- literally one -- person buying or selling a substantial number of shares.
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#7
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Absent substantial, direct insider information, those TS prices don't make any sense the way they've fluctuated. As others have said, volume is very low right now. I gather I own about 10% of the contracts in circulation, FWIW.
Up until the word of the holds got out, 20 to 30 was a very fair price, and now that we've seen the political/procedural environment firm up a little, giving us a high degree of short term certainty (now thru first week of Sept), and only a moderate degree of longer term knowledge (Sept is truly a wild card, post-election lame duck less so), I would expect to see some range and fluctuation in the prices, but not quite this much. I won't buy above 18 knowing what I know now, and I won't sell below 28 or so. Anything inbetween those numbers seems IMO to be a wash, esp. with the fees TS charges for price takers. Take that for what it's worth, and know that my positions might change at the drop of a hat. |
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