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#22
07-25-2006, 06:03 AM
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Re: Shaniac Min-Check-Raises Me
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Here I think regardeless of your holding, the nuts or a marginal hand, you need some time to decide your line. Rushing your chips in the middle in that hand vs that player is not an indication of more strenght or weakness. [/ QUOTE ] this is really, really wrong. I guess I should qualify that with a 'maybe not vs. that particular player' in case it's not true vs. exactly Shaniac. it probably is, though, as it is definitely wrong vs. 99.999% of all poker players including almost everybody in that skill range. [/ QUOTE ] I am not sure I understood. Can you elaborate? Do you mean if you shove quickly you look more like AK than AA? or the other way around? 
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#25
07-25-2006, 10:34 AM
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Re: Shaniac Min-Check-Raises Me
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I really have to pay closer attention to the thread. I had no idea that you posted results before I answered. Regards, Woodguy [/ QUOTE ] You can do penance by answering me this: You suggested it would be better to call than to shove because we needed him to bet the turn. On the turn, my stack will be the size of the pot. Assuming a blank turns (ignoring possible disagreement over what constitutes a blank), with which worse hands do you think he bets the turn? KQ? AJ? 88? 76? Should I call an all in on any turn card? I ask because the question of whether he would bet a worse hand on the turn was central to my decision about whether to push. Folding out TT is maybe a marginal benefit of shoving, but if he almost always shoves the turn, then I would agree that calling is better. I just didn't feel like he would expect to be ahead with 88 or to have fold equity with overs if I called the flop. Care to expound on why you think he would? Much appreciated, Foucault
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#26
07-25-2006, 12:13 PM
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Re: Shaniac Min-Check-Raises Me
[ QUOTE ]
You can do penance by answering me this: You suggested it would be better to call than to shove because we needed him to bet the turn. On the turn, my stack will be the size of the pot. Assuming a blank turns (ignoring possible disagreement over what constitutes a blank), with which worse hands do you think he bets the turn? KQ? AJ? 88? 76? Should I call an all in on any turn card? I ask because the question of whether he would bet a worse hand on the turn was central to my decision about whether to push. Folding out TT is maybe a marginal benefit of shoving, but if he almost always shoves the turn, then I would agree that calling is better. I just didn't feel like he would expect to be ahead with 88 or to have fold equity with overs if I called the flop. Care to expound on why you think he would? Much appreciated, Foucault [/ QUOTE ] If we proceed on the assumption we are ahead, then we can usually assume he is drawing to 2-6 outs on this board so the turn card doesn't matter. If we are ahead, then calling gives Shane to try to make one last stab at the pot, and given the size of the pot it may be by putting you all in. He may just check/fold if he thinks he's behind, but he may also think he has some FE left in his stack, and given my limited experience playing with Shane I can see him easily putting you all in with nothing on the turn to try to win the pot. He may accurately put you on someting close to what you actually have, and *know* you may have trouble calling off your tourney with it. I'm not saying he *always* bets the turn, but given the size of the pot, if its the only way he can win it, he probably does this >25% of the time, especially given that he will still have 25BB's if you call and he loses, its not the end of the world. It does all depend on his opinion of you and of your hand. If I'm in Shane's spot and you accidentally show me your cards I go all in on most turns as its really, really tough for you to call (this is different than me saying big laydowns are rare online, because I don't think folding 99 to a min/ cr turn shove is a big laydown against the BB in a low paired board) It does look like the c/mr may be Shane's "one shot" at the pot and if he doesn't improve he gives up, but I cannot discount him trying for the pot on the turn. If you really think you are ahead, I think you at least need to give him to rope to hang himself with, even though he may not use it. Regards, Woodguy
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#28
07-25-2006, 12:58 PM
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Re: Shaniac Min-Check-Raises Me
This is actually a great play by Shaniac. The bet is a small gamble by him, but can look really scary to you. If you call it, half your stack is in which does not give you odds to call an all-in bet on the turn unless you hit. This is the range I think he is likely on:
1) A low-medium pair (22-44,77-TT) --- he is making this bet to find out if you really have him beat. He does not expect you to fold with overcards, but he does expect you to raise with an overpair, in which case he can fold. If you just call, he will put you on overs and will push any turn card that is unlikely to help you (perhaps any turn card). 2) A whopper --- either he is trying to get you to commit with a medium pair when he holds QQ-AA, or he has hit a full house or quads on the flop. Given that, it might be best to just call his minraise and call any bet on the turn. I DOUBT he has overcards to make this play. I also think that with AA or KK, he might do this, but I would think check-call would be more likely.
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#30
07-25-2006, 05:25 PM
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Re: Shaniac Min-Check-Raises Me
[ QUOTE ]
This is actually a great play by Shaniac. 2) A whopper --- either he is trying to get you to commit with a medium pair when he holds QQ-AA, or he has hit a full house or quads on the flop. Given that, it might be best to just call his minraise and call any bet on the turn. I DOUBT he has overcards to make this play. I also think that with AA or KK, he might do this, but I would think check-call would be more likely. [/ QUOTE ] I think overcards are more likely than AA-KK. Those hands raise from the button IMO bc of closing out the BB. Also, Foucalt raising UTG means more than likely he is strong, so Shane would want to get it in now with the best. Most likely holding is 77-JJ, with AK being second, and a weird 57s, or 67s third. AA-QQ is a distant fourth.
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