WSOP Main Event

[jclin]

I apologize, Lapper, for being such a hater, but my earlier thoughts are that you always play tourneys to win.

Avoiding all-in and folding at bubble cannot be -$eV if your goal is making the money. Sorry to bring up last year, but you probably could have folded ITM at 60K and M=15 at that point, considering only 20% of 700 need to drop out and the median (not the mean) is well below 100K. You need IMO either KK or AA to keep picking up any chips. There is probably some formula that you can use based on M, % of people needed out to make the money, and pace of game to determine if you can make the money just by folding, or only playing AA or KK to make the money. I don't think AK or maybe even QQ is good enough to play if you want to make the money based on your M last year, but I am just guessing.

What Foucault and others said about making the money is very logical.

[betgo]

I don't have links to threads in my guide, but I will have to add this one. This should also be in the anthology.

[Lapper]

I did a SHAL (Structured Hand Analysis, see Dan Harrington, Vol II) on the hand that that I described, and given the following percentages (60% he had a PP lower than AA or KK, 10% bluff, 10% AA, 10% KK, 10% Ax, with x < K) my play was positive EV, but that does not take into account my stated goal of making the money, as many of you have pointed out.