#201
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Re: Week Four - prediction (post show)
llabb, what do you think about Katharine McPhee at +3500? I think the only 3 that are safe are the group of Chris, Taylor and Kellie . Who have never been in the bottom three through their fan base, talent , and song selections.
Katherine has talent but I could see her chosing a bad song and leaving this week. I would guess the bottom three will be Eliot, Ace and Katherine. Eliot will probally be going but at +3500 a small bet on Katherine wouldn't be a bad thing. |
#202
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Re: Week Five: preliminary pick for arbitrage
[ QUOTE ]
I am formally recommending a preliminary bet on Paris at +1100 (or anything higher) prior to the show next week. I expect arbitrage opportunity to come from this preliminary pick. While it's possible that Paris will bump up due to votes swinging from Mandisa, I do not expect that to be the case. I believe she'll struggle with the material this week, and will be at risk of the bottom three thus her line will fall dramatically after the show. [/ QUOTE ] I both agree and disagree. I think Paris does pick up the bulk of the Mandisa fanbase, and also has a voting advantage as the only black contestant left. So I don't think she will actually be voted off. However, like you said, I do think there's a chance (say 40% or so) that she barely ends up in the bottom 3. So if you just want to hedge, in order to be comfortable with a larger wager on others, her odds are so long that it's reasonable to hedge on her. [ QUOTE ] I also believe Pickler will bomb on the show, and the +1800 line to be +EV however it will be very unlikely that she's actually eliminated. however in a trading market, I would take a selling position on Pickler as her value should decline after the show. [/ QUOTE ] I disagree here, and reiterate to any interested: Kellie NOT to make final 4: You get +100 Kellie NOT to make final 5: You get +200 Kellie NOT to make final 6: You get +400 Kellie NOT to make final 7: You get +800 [ QUOTE ] llabb, what do you think about Katharine McPhee at +3500? [/ QUOTE ] Re: Katharine, I do not think she leaves this week, and doubtful at bottom 3. |
#203
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Re: Week Five: preliminary pick for arbitrage
FYI, free public service announcement. Pinny just put up some last longers, and there's a miniscule arb available between them and WSEX. They both have Chris vs Kat in a LL. You can get Chris -148 on Pinny, Kat +150 on WSEX.
Yes, it's super-tiny, but it is an arb, so I thought I'd let those of you with big bankrolls know. It's too small to be worth it to me to tie up a ton of funds, but go for it if you like. |
#204
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Re: Week Five: preliminary pick for arbitrage
Making another formal preshow recommendation:
.1 unit on Pickler to leave this week at +1000. So that gives us: .1 unit on Paris at +1100 .1 unit on Pickler at +1000 Yes, obviously wishing i'd taken advantage of the +1800 that I originally posted. I knew her value was going to fall, I just didn't expect it would fall so quickly. Its been around +1000 most of the week. I'll re-evaluate after the show tonight. "season" record: 3-1 on elimination picks. +2.4381 units Paris has dropped down to around +850 so hopefully you were able to get in at the higher level. I'd recommend moving on "to win a unit" at +850 now even so, as its going to fall significantly post-show with her expected performance struggles. I look for a bottom three this week of Bucky, Paris, and Pickler. Not yet sure if Bucky can do enough to get voted off or not, but having Paris and Pickler at 10-1 is going to be a good position when they're in the bottom three. |
#205
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Re: Week Five: preliminary pick for arbitrage
Post-show thoughts.
Very happy with my position on Paris. Kellie's stock should drop a little, but not exactly as much as anticipated. Ace is going to be in trouble this week, i think. I look for a bottom three of Ace, Bucky and Paris with Ace going home. Waiting for the lines to repop to post a formal recommendation for the week. |
#206
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Re: Week Five: preliminary pick for arbitrage
What a disgrace. They have one of the most legendary bands as the theme...and they completely blow it.
I cannot, for the life of me, understand how you can have 8 singers out there and nobody sings "We are the Champions". Then, to top it off, they change "We will rock you" to be more mellow and have a ditzy blonde country girl sing "Bohemian Rhapsody". Freaking unbelievable. Simon hit the nail on the head when he said Chris had a real chance tonight. If he had come out with any of the three songs I listed above, he could have cemented himself as the favorite to win this thing. Instead, he sings a song nobody's ever heard before and does a poor job with it. I have no clue who'll be in the bottom three. They all deserve to go home. |
#207
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Re: Week Five: preliminary pick for arbitrage
angelus, i enjoyed your rant [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] i both agreed and disagreed with different parts.
i thought the idols were actually fairly good (other than ace). why chris chooses some obscure song when he would have been sensational song is beyond me unless somehow he has a huge teenage girl following (i know he has a gay following), ace has to be a really strong choice to leave this. bottom 3 i guess will be bucky (did an o.k. job), ace (for sure - no doubt) and who else? probably elliott although he's fairly safe. i'll check tradesport.com. see where it's at.... |
#208
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Re: Week Five: preliminary pick for arbitrage
ooops, tradesports.com ACE going home has sky-rocketed to 40%. bucky at 50%.
any value in elliott (3%) or paris (6%) going home... or very, very speculative katharine at 2% to go home... |
#209
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Re: Week Four - RESULTS
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] As far as your elimination picks go, is it "fair" that you are picking 3 out of 9 contestanst to go, and saying that is a "win". I understand you won by hedging, as did I. It just seems that if you are going to pick 3 each week you should never lose. [/ QUOTE ] Its a fair question. This week, i specifically called out mandisa so either way I think its a clear win. In my opinion if I post a three-pick arbitrage that should count as one pick - that's what I recommended playing, and would take the ~1 unit win or ~2.5 unit loss to my "record" depending on the outcome - that's the disclaimer I posted in the pick post anyways. Happy to take feedback and track the record either way. I don't expect three person arbitrages every week - the farther we go the clearer cut its going to become (and the less favorable the lines, I don't expect a +1 unit arbitrage on the expected bottom three every week) [/ QUOTE ] You need to learn the definition of 'arbitrage'. |
#210
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Re: Week Four - RESULTS
Bottom 3 tonight should be Ace, Bucky, and Elliot. Although, with the way things have been the last few weeks, who knows. Maybe Chris will be in the bottom 3; that would be nice.
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