Are NE even money to win the superbowl?

[tomdemaine]

I know nothing about sports betting. Should I take a straight up bet that the Patriots will win the superbowl.

The bet is the patriots win the superbowl yes/no pick a side and you get even money on either choice. Is there any value in this bet?

[psuasskicker]

I don't think there's any real value in it other than I don't think they're actually 50% to win it all. The market's set that price on them though, so WTFDIK?

- C -

[splashpot]

If they are 80% to win each of the 3 post season games, that's 51.2% to win the SB. Assuing they will have to beat Indy again, that game is say 60% Pats win at home. .6*.9*.9=.486 Do you think the Pats win 90% against whatever other teams they have to play?

[psuasskicker]

They beat Indi by 4 in Indi. Theoretically they're gonna have them in NE. They'll probably be a TD fav or more. No way they're gonna be 60% to beat Indi...

- C -

[splashpot]

[ QUOTE ]
They beat Indi by 4 in Indi. Theoretically they're gonna have them in NE. They'll probably be a TD fav or more. No way they're gonna be 60% to beat Indi...

[/ QUOTE ]
What do you think it is then? I wouldn't go strictly by the lines this past week because I think it's pretty obvious the books were charging a tax on betting the Pats.

[theclock]

NE vs the field? (Week 10 now)

I take the field at +100

What will happen if Brady takes a shot and is done for the year?

[jessica1994]

[ QUOTE ]
If they are 80% to win each of the 3 post season games, that's 51.2% to win the SB. Assuing they will have to beat Indy again, that game is say 60% Pats win at home. .6*.9*.9=.486 Do you think the Pats win 90% against whatever other teams they have to play?

[/ QUOTE ]

lol the line had NE to win 66% AT indy.. so i think the adjusted line will conpensate for it being at NE now and NE chance will still be > 66%.. probably like 75%

[jessica1994]

[ QUOTE ]
I know nothing about sports betting. Should I take a straight up bet that the Patriots will win the superbowl.

The bet is the patriots win the superbowl yes/no pick a side and you get even money on either choice. Is there any value in this bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

if both bets are at +100 then one bet has to be +EV...

[tomdemaine]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I know nothing about sports betting. Should I take a straight up bet that the Patriots will win the superbowl.

The bet is the patriots win the superbowl yes/no pick a side and you get even money on either choice. Is there any value in this bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

if both bets are at +100 then one bet has to be +EV...

[/ QUOTE ]

But is there enough value there to wrap up my money for so long.

[domer2]

The Patriots are - mathematically speaking in the here and now - a -108 favorite to win the Superbowl.

Therefore, no there is not enough value to wrap up your money for that long.

I thought you were brand new to sports betting? The way you phrased it made it sound like you were making a bet with your friend. If you're a Pats fan and your friend is giving you +100 and you want to make a bet, take it. If you're worried about "value" and things like that, then just pass.