#1
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Help with math
OK assume 200nl 6max with $200 effective stacks.
Folded to hero on CO who raises to 7. Villain is D and 3bets to 24. Hero shoves. Now, I predict that 80.2% of the time villain will fold, where we win 24+3(blinds)+7= $34 19.8% of the time villain will call. I would like to know what the breakeven % for villains range will be. So. X% of the time we will win $200 from villain. (100-X)% of the time we will lose $200 to villain. So, (80.2)(34) + (200)(X) - (200)(100-X) = 0 This comes out at 48%ish and that has to be wrong. I'm assuming the parts where we have inserted 200 is wrong. Can anyone correct it please? |
#2
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Re: Help with math
Would this be right:
$34 x 0.802 + 400(X) - 200 |
#3
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Re: Help with math
80.2% of the time we win $34, 19.8% of the time he calls and we win 210 (200 + 7 + 3) Y% of the time and lose 193 (200 - 7) (1-Y)% of the time.
0.802(34) + 0.198[(210 x Y) - (193 x (1-Y)] = 0 27.268 + 41.58Y - 38.214 + 38.214Y = 0 79.794Y = 10.946 Y = 0.137 So in other words if we have > 13.7% equity against villains calling range it's +EV to shove here. |
#4
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Re: Help with math
[ QUOTE ]
So in other words if we have > 13.7% equity against villains calling range it's +EV to shove here. [/ QUOTE ] im terrible in three bet pots and more or less a donkey in live games.. but this makes sense and is troulbing at the same time.. shove with any PP, when you get three bet? |
#5
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Re: Help with math
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] So in other words if we have > 13.7% equity against villains calling range it's +EV to shove here. [/ QUOTE ] im terrible in three bet pots and more or less a donkey in live games.. but this makes sense and is troulbing at the same time.. shove with any PP, when you get three bet? [/ QUOTE ] Only if your opponent will fold 80.2% of their 3betting range..... |
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