#1
|
|||
|
|||
heads up downswings
let's say you're a heads up limit hold'em player. for the sake of this discussion, you play only heads up. your edge against your opponents is thin, but it's there. you and your opponents play a very aggressive game. given all this, over a 100k hand trial, on average, what would be considered the worst downswing you could see? 500BB? worse?
|
#2
|
|||
|
|||
Re: heads up downswings
Isn't HU more swingy than 6max? I believe 500BB downswings aren't considered rare anymore at 6max, even for winning players so my guess would be much worse.
|
#3
|
|||
|
|||
Re: heads up downswings
why do you think they aren't as rare anymore? is it because the games have become more aggressive, or because there's more data to go around lately?
|
#4
|
|||
|
|||
Re: heads up downswings
They aren't "considered rare" anymore.
It could be because the games are worse, but it could also be that we're just getting better data as time goes by. It used to be that 300BB downswings were considered impossible for true winners. Then it was 500, and now Hock_ posted a thread where he's a winner for half a million hands, and then has a 1000BB downswing. |
#5
|
|||
|
|||
Re: heads up downswings
1000, that's insane. Can you link the thread?
|
#6
|
|||
|
|||
Re: heads up downswings
look in high stakes
|
#7
|
|||
|
|||
Re: heads up downswings
Some simulations. Winrate: 1 BB/100 SD: 25BB/100 One hour = 100 hands
I count 5 of 10 with at least a 500BB downswing and one 800 BB downswing |
#8
|
|||
|
|||
Re: heads up downswings
wow. that is so revealing. thanks for those examples! some of those graphs look horrible. what software did you make them with? i assume SD means standard deviation. is 25BB/100 realistic?
|
#9
|
|||
|
|||
Re: heads up downswings
[ QUOTE ]
wow. that is so revealing. thanks for those examples! some of those graphs look horrible. what software did you make them with? [/ QUOTE ] Excel [ QUOTE ] i assume SD means standard deviation. is 25BB/100 realistic? [/ QUOTE ] Well I don't really know what it is. 20BB/100 is realistic IMO for agro 4-6 handed games. HU has a greater SD then 6m games... |
#10
|
|||
|
|||
Re: heads up downswings
how much greater? what about 2-4 handed games, where most of the hands are HU, then 3, then 4 players?
|
Thread Tools | |
Display Modes | |
|
|